PEAK

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.15

Advertised RTP

75.83%

EV $0.11 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.47%

3,673 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

69 openings · below min

7 days

88.64%±2.972,215 openings

30 days

89.47%±2.273,673 openings

since tracking started

89.47%±2.273,673 openings

74.0%98.0%122.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.21% – 91.74%, 3,673 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	69	103.50%±18.0	—	odds
7d	2,215	88.64%±2.97	+9.2σ	odds
30d	3,673	89.47%±2.27	+12.9σ	odds
All	3,673	89.47%±2.27	+12.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,687 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112,369	$5.18	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 93,044	$4.55	0.0%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37,029	$2.91	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Charm \| Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff	1 in 7,539	$1.62	0.2%	1	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,323	$1.22	0.3%	4	1.1	3.60×
Charm \| Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6	1 in 2,800	$1.15	0.4%	2	1.3	1.52×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,699	$1.13	0.4%	2	1.4	1.46×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,375	$0.90	0.6%	1	2.7	0.37×
Charm \| Pocket Popcharm · #8847ff	1 in 957	$0.80	0.7%	9	3.9	2.34×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 447	$0.61	1.2%	6	8.2	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 303	$0.54	1.6%	16	12.2	1.32×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 217	$0.48	1.9%	31	17.0	1.82×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 178	$0.44	2.2%	52	20.7	2.51×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 175	$0.44	2.2%	17	21.0	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 139	$0.41	2.6%	53	26.6	1.99×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$0.39	2.8%	41	30.6	1.34×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 111	$0.37	3.0%	30	33.3	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.36	3.2%	29	36.7	0.79×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 98	$0.36	3.2%	84	37.8	2.22×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 91	$0.35	3.3%	8	40.3	0.20×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$0.26	5.3%	52	85.2	0.61×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$0.25	5.7%	147	96.5	1.52×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.17	8.9%	196	218.2	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	13.7%	$0.10	11.7%	490	506.0	0.97×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	16.5%	$0.07	10.6%	83	607.2	0.14×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	16.7%	$0.07	10.4%	250	614.3	0.41×
MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	17.1%	$0.06	9.2%	641	632.2	1.01×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	17.1%	$0.06	8.3%	0	631.9	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1shot ♛$0.15$0.362.39x35m

MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffLucifer$0.15$0.060.41x52m

Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLucifer$0.15$0.070.49x52m

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · RareLucifer$0.15$0.070.48x52m

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specLucifer$0.15$0.171.17x52m

MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffSlinkeeee$0.15$0.060.41x1h

MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffbololo ldp$0.15$0.060.41x11h

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarebololo ldp$0.15$0.070.49x11h

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)weapon · 3GHOST👻$0.15$0.342.29x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.15	75.83%	28
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.15	75.67%	26
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.15	75.70%	28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.15	76.05%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.15	76.35%	27
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.15	76.35%	26
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.15	76.32%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.15	76.33%	27
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.15	76.40%	27
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.15	76.87%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.15	76.63%	27
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.15	76.67%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.15	76.77%	28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.15	76.75%	28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.15	76.77%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.15	76.92%	27
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.15	76.90%	28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.15	76.79%	28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.15	76.93%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.15	76.99%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.15	76.83%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.15	76.90%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.15	77.35%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.17	74.46%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.17	74.27%	27
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.17	73.89%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.17	74.10%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.17	74.05%	27
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.17	74.06%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.17	74.06%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.1%Legendary 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%#8847ff 1.2%restricted 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%mil spec 6.1%violet 2.9%milspec 6.5%Rare 31.3%blue 16.5%#4b69ff 17.1%Uncommon 17.1%best hit —