pedrobiks
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
66.14%
EV $0.72 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6295.44%
195 openings, odds method
Variance
89.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 90
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 195 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 195 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 9,843 | $799 | 11.3% | 3 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 4,003 | $176 | 6.1% | 3 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,197 | $156 | 6.8% | 11 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 1,534 | $114 | 10.3% | 15 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 102 | $43.69 | 59.3% | 154 | 1.9 | 80.73× |
| Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 98.9% | $0.05 | 6.3% | 0 | 192.8 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.09 | 66.14% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 65.97% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 65.85% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 65.86% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 66.11% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 66.33% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.41% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.33% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.36% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 66.80% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 66.81% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.87% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.88% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.78% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.78% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.83% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.80% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.73% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 67.14% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 67.15% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 67.08% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.83% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.94% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.90% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 66.94% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%gold 0.1%#ffd700 1.0%Uncommon 98.9%best hit $834 (765.4x)