PGL Bucharest 2026

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

73.78%

EV $1.54 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.16%

14.1K openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.91%±3.541,908 openings

7 days

73.99%±1.4512.1K openings

30 days

74.16%±1.3514.1K openings

since tracking started

74.16%±1.3514.1K openings

70.5%74.8%79.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,908	74.91%±3.54	+0.6σ	odds
7d	12.1K	73.99%±1.45	−0.7σ	odds
30d	14.1K	74.16%±1.35	−0.7σ	odds
All	14.1K	74.16%±1.35	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 9,737	$72.07	0.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 9,568	$60.76	0.4%	3	1.5	2.03×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 9,188	$48.57	0.3%	1	1.5	0.65×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,397	$37.55	0.3%	1	1.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 8,254	$36.29	0.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,126	$29.25	0.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,208	$22.19	0.3%	6	2.7	2.21×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 4,020	$18.89	0.3%	2	3.5	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,728	$12.73	0.5%	14	8.2	1.71×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,717	$12.70	0.5%	13	8.2	1.58×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,542	$12.16	0.5%	7	9.2	0.76×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 817	$9.52	0.8%	24	17.3	1.39×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 668	$8.83	0.9%	32	21.2	1.51×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 610	$8.54	0.9%	30	23.2	1.30×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 279	$6.41	1.5%	28	50.7	0.55×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 114	$4.60	2.6%	134	123.5	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$4.55	2.7%	143	127.0	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 55	$3.44	4.1%	304	256.6	1.18×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$2.91	5.0%	377	377.6	1.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.74	5.4%	487	428.5	1.14×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$2.16	6.8%	772	682.5	1.13×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$1.75	7.6%	510	951.5	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.71	7.7%	1,119	985.5	1.14×
Charm \| Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.62	7.9%	1,095	1060.3	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	10.2%	$1.15	7.6%	1,468	1438.4	1.02×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	10.4%	$1.11	7.5%	1,399	1464.4	0.96×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.4%	$1.10	7.4%	1,463	1472.4	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.4%	$1.10	7.4%	1,405	1470.8	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.1%	$0.89	6.4%	1,505	1564.0	0.96×
Charm \| Pocket Popcharm · #8847ff	11.1%	$0.80	5.8%	1,495	1568.0	0.95×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Charm | Pocket Popcharm · #8847ffAleky :D$2.09$0.800.38x27s

Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAleky :D$2.09$1.690.81x27s

AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffAleky :D$2.09$2.070.99x2m

SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalAleky :D$2.09$1.080.52x2m

AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypE$2.09$1.170.56x2m

Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHypE$2.09$0.870.42x2m

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedIns1de$2.09$1.160.56x2m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypE$2.09$2.681.28x2m

Charm | Pocket Popcharm · #8847ffHypE$2.09$0.800.38x2m

Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedANTISOCIAL$2.09$1.690.81x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.78%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	73.78%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	73.49%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	73.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	73.87%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	74.20%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	74.12%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	74.16%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	74.22%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	74.32%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	74.77%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	74.70%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	74.64%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	74.78%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.09	74.74%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.77%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.70%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.09	74.72%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.09	74.73%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.68%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.09	74.72%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.09	75.15%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.09	75.11%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.09	75.06%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.09	74.77%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.09	74.80%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.09	74.82%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.09	74.77%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.09	74.81%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.0%gold 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 1.2%pink 2.9%#d32ee6 0.2%#4b69ff 0.4%restricted 41.9%Classified 1.8%#8847ff 23.4%Rare 6.7%Mythical 10.4%violet 11.1%best hit —