Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

73.66%

EV $1.02 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.53%

1,468 openings, odds method

Variance

6.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.91%±38.68172 openings

7 days

97.28%±13.471,231 openings

30 days

94.53%±12.381,468 openings

since tracking started

94.53%±12.381,468 openings

43.5%82.8%122.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.15% – 106.91%, 1,468 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	172	82.91%±38.7	+0.5σ	odds
7d	1,231	97.28%±13.5	+3.3σ	odds
30d	1,468	94.53%±12.4	+3.1σ	odds
All	1,468	94.53%±12.4	+3.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,471 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,995	$273	2.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 9,962	$138	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,904	$101	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,880	$93.88	0.9%	1	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,783	$76.70	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,802	$24.00	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 712	$9.12	1.3%	7	2.1	3.39×
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 571	$8.42	1.4%	5	2.6	1.94×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$2.66	11.9%	109	67.3	1.62×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$2.44	13.8%	116	85.2	1.36×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$2.38	14.3%	130	90.3	1.44×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$2.32	14.9%	158	96.6	1.64×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	76.5%	$0.47	35.4%	398	1126.0	0.35×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert⛴$1.39$96.7369.59x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1shot ♛$1.39$0.460.33x4m

MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffJOQQ$1.39$2.471.78x13m

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecUwU$1.39$0.460.33x34m

P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedJOQQ$1.39$9.436.78x34m

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecUwU$1.39$0.460.33x35m

MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffUwU$1.39$2.471.78x35m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	73.66%	13
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	73.54%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	73.46%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	73.77%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	74.09%	13
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	74.07%	13
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	74.04%	13
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	74.12%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	74.19%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	74.61%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	74.62%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	74.58%	13
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	74.64%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.39	74.63%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.39	74.66%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.64%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.62%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.39	74.61%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.39	74.59%	13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.64%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.55%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.39	74.74%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.39	75.00%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.39	74.98%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.39	74.91%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.39	74.68%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.39	74.69%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.39	74.66%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.39	74.74%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.39	74.73%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.3%violet 4.6%#8847ff 18.5%milspec 76.5%best hit $96.73 (69.59x)