Price
$0.19
Advertised RTP
65.97%
EV $0.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
19216.64%
1,015 openings, odds method
Variance
120.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 306
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1,015 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,016 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 866 | $41.54 | 38.3% | 382 | 1.2 | 325.50× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 472 | $33.46 | 56.5% | 615 | 2.2 | 285.90× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 32.6% | <$0.01 | 2.1% | 0 | 331.5 | 0.00× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 27.7% | <$0.01 | 1.5% | 0 | 281.5 | 0.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 19.7% | <$0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 199.8 | 0.00× |
| SCAR-20 | Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 19.7% | <$0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 199.8 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.19 | 65.97% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.19 | 65.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.19 | 65.87% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.19 | 66.21% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.19 | 66.46% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.19 | 66.49% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.19 | 66.49% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.19 | 66.44% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.19 | 66.56% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.19 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.19 | 66.83% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.19 | 66.83% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.19 | 66.85% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.19 | 66.89% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.19 | 66.89% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.90% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.87% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.88% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.90% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.90% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 66.77% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.19 | 66.95% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.19 | 67.32% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.19 | 67.31% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.16% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.19 | 66.92% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.19 | 66.99% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.19 | 66.98% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.19 | 67.00% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.19 | 66.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%#b0c3d9 52.3%consumer 47.4%best hit $44.27 (233.0x)