Prisma case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
75.13%
EV $0.82 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.92%
1,138 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.83% – 93.02%, 1,138 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,139 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 9,919 | $109 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,271 | $51.14 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,254 | $50.73 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 215 | $5.99 | 3.4% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 185 | $5.67 | 3.7% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.63× |
| AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 167 | $5.46 | 4.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 55 | $3.61 | 8.1% | 30 | 20.8 | 1.44× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 16.9% | $1.10 | 22.7% | 240 | 192.8 | 1.24× |
| AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 20.4% | $0.63 | 15.7% | 6 | 232.3 | 0.03× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.2% | $0.59 | 14.5% | 252 | 229.8 | 1.10× |
| MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 19.9% | $0.56 | 13.6% | 235 | 226.9 | 1.04× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 19.1% | $0.49 | 11.5% | 242 | 217.7 | 1.11× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.13%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 75.13% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.75% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.69% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 75.01% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 75.52% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.56% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.45% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.41% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.30% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 76.10% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 75.76% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 75.79% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.89% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 76.04% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.93% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.80% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 76.01% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.87% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 76.05% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.99% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.91% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.02% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 76.25% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 76.35% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.16% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.04% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.12% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.12% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 76.16% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.09 | 76.17% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 1.6%restricted 78.0%Rare 20.4%best hit —