Prisma 2 Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.93

Advertised RTP

76.69%

EV $0.71 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.57%

1,225 openings, odds method

Variance

23.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50 openings · below min

7 days

71.92%±30.68914 openings

30 days

71.57%±26.381,225 openings

since tracking started

71.57%±26.381,225 openings

-0.5%97.5%195.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	50	63.48%±131.6	—	odds
7d	914	71.92%±30.7	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,225	71.57%±26.4	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,225	71.57%±26.4	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,999	$327	4.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 9,998	$283	4.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,860	$67.72	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,714	$53.04	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,708	$52.68	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 437	$5.74	1.8%	5	2.8	1.78×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 424	$5.68	1.9%	2	2.9	0.69×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 318	$5.11	2.3%	5	3.9	1.30×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.5%	$0.90	14.5%	94	141.1	0.67×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	11.6%	$0.89	14.5%	67	142.2	0.47×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.4%	$0.60	11.3%	188	164.2	1.14×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	13.4%	$0.59	11.1%	109	164.3	0.66×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.4%	$0.56	10.5%	164	164.0	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.3%	$0.54	10.1%	184	163.5	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	11.6%	$0.36	5.9%	98	142.1	0.69×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	11.0%	$0.33	5.1%	3	134.3	0.02×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffadle08$0.93$0.961.03x8m

SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicaladle08$0.93$0.680.73x8m

SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicaladle08$0.93$0.550.59x9m

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 35ooN$0.93$0.590.63x1h

AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeRevelation$0.93$0.330.35x2h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff???$0.93$0.370.39x4h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff-kZ$0.93$0.360.39x8h

AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare-kZ$0.93$0.890.96x8h

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff4 tabua$0.93$0.931.00x10h

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 34 tabua$0.93$0.580.62x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.93	76.69%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.93	76.48%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.93	76.55%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.93	76.86%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.93	77.20%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.93	77.13%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.93	77.08%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.93	77.42%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.93	77.28%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.93	77.74%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.93	77.63%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.93	77.83%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.93	77.65%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.93	77.83%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.93	77.68%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.94%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.66%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.93	77.63%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.93	77.81%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.88%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.76%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.93	77.83%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.93	78.19%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.93	78.19%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.93	78.05%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.93	77.76%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.93	77.80%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.93	77.86%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.93	77.91%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.93	77.96%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 13.4%covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#d32ee6 0.2%Legendary 0.2%classified 0.3%#8847ff 11.5%Rare 11.6%Mythical 40.1%#4b69ff 11.6%Mil Spec Grade 11.0%best hit —