PUBG: Battlegrounds

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.07

Advertised RTP

77.61%

EV $0.05 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

189.07%

22.6K openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

219.90%±6.011,951 openings

7 days

193.50%±1.9218.1K openings

30 days

189.07%±1.7022.6K openings

since tracking started

189.07%±1.7022.6K openings

77.0%151.8%226.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.58% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (187.37% – 190.77%, 22,607 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,951	219.90%±6.01	+46.4σ	odds
7d	18.1K	193.50%±1.92	+117.7σ	odds
30d	22.6K	189.07%±1.70	+127.2σ	odds
All	22.6K	189.07%±1.70	+127.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 199	$1.04	9.6%	688	113.4	6.06×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 199	$0.82	7.6%	594	113.8	5.22×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 184	$0.35	3.5%	595	122.8	4.84×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.14	2.8%	653	246.9	2.65×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$0.08	4.7%	1,466	712.2	2.06×
Charm \| Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare	1 in 25	$0.07	5.3%	2,955	900.7	3.28×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$0.07	5.5%	2,273	943.7	2.41×
MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.05	7.3%	0	1724.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.05	8.0%	8,995	2050.2	4.39×
AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	11.3%	$0.04	8.7%	0	2551.1	0.00×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	12.6%	$0.04	9.1%	0	2857.5	0.00×
AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	12.6%	$0.04	9.0%	0	2845.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	15.1%	$0.03	9.5%	0	3419.8	0.00×
Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	17.7%	$0.03	9.5%	0	4014.3	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffTakoq$0.07$0.050.73x1m

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffJnk$0.07$0.050.73x4m

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffTakoq$0.07$0.142.03x5m

Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · RareTakoq$0.07$0.071.03x6m

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffTakoq$0.07$0.050.70x6m

Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · RareTakoq$0.07$0.071.03x6m

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecTakoq$0.07$0.091.30x6m

Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · RareTakoq$0.07$0.071.03x6m

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffTakoq$0.07$0.050.70x6m

Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · RareTakoq$0.07$0.071.03x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.61%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.07	77.61%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.07	77.38%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.07	77.55%	12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.07	77.82%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.07	78.12%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.07	78.10%	13
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.07	77.80%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.07	78.12%	13
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.07	78.13%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.07	78.43%	11
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.07	78.47%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.07	78.56%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.07	78.70%	11
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.07	78.69%	10
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.07	78.73%	10
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.07	78.73%	11
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.07	78.67%	11
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.07	78.65%	10
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.07	78.60%	11
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.07	78.60%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.07	78.60%	11
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.07	79.12%	11
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.07	79.10%	11
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.07	78.83%	11
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.07	78.69%	10
4 Nov, 08:09 UTC	$0.07	78.75%	10
4 Nov, 07:05 UTC	$0.07	78.68%	10
4 Nov, 05:18 UTC	$0.07	79.01%	10
3 Nov, 23:08 UTC	$0.07	78.70%	10
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.07	78.59%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedviolet 1.5%#4b69ff 10.2%milspec 3.1%Rare 8.2%industrial 7.6%#87c7ff 11.3%#5e98d9 30.4%consumer 12.6%Uncommon 15.1%best hit —