Real pirate

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.13

Advertised RTP

71.52%

EV $0.09 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,961	$94.63	0.5%	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 198,849	$30.45	0.2%	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 198,612	$28.60	0.2%	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 197,507	$23.49	0.1%	—
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40,886	$3.47	0.1%	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 38,801	$3.40	0.1%	—
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,971	$1.97	0.2%	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 6,450	$1.75	0.3%	—
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,642	$1.10	0.7%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,520	$1.07	0.8%	—
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 763	$0.84	1.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 412	$0.68	1.8%	—
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 413	$0.68	1.8%	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 377	$0.66	1.9%	—
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 70	$0.36	5.5%	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$0.32	6.7%	—
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$0.26	8.9%	—
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 19	$0.21	11.8%	—
AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.18	13.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	14.6%	$0.10	15.2%	—
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	16.2%	$0.07	12.3%	—
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	15.9%	$0.06	9.7%	—
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer	10.3%	$0.03	3.0%	—
G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$0.02	1.3%	—
Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 16	$0.01	1.0%	—
Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$0.01	0.9%	—
SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 24	$0.01	0.4%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.13	71.52%	27
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.13	71.36%	27
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.13	71.54%	27
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.13	71.64%	27
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.13	72.12%	27
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.13	72.06%	27
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.13	72.05%	27
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.13	72.19%	27
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.13	72.13%	27
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.13	72.51%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.13	72.55%	27
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.13	72.54%	27
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.13	72.53%	27
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.13	72.39%	27
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.13	72.48%	27
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	72.65%	27
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	72.51%	27
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.13	72.51%	27
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.13	72.52%	27
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	72.53%	27
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	72.43%	27
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.13	72.62%	27
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.13	73.03%	27
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.13	73.02%	27
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.13	72.77%	27
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.13	72.60%	27
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.13	72.67%	27
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.13	72.71%	27
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.13	72.63%	27
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.13	72.58%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 15.9%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%mil spec 6.6%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 0.5%Rare 14.9%restricted 0.1%#8847ff 0.1%#4b69ff 12.4%milspec 16.2%Consumer 10.3%consumer 19.0%#B0C3D9 4.2%