Recoil Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
76.24%
EV $5.18 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.43%
7,707 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.46% – 86.39%, 7,707 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,707 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 18,428 | $487 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13,349 | $270 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,348 | $109 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 1 in 883 | $76.41 | 1.7% | 19 | 8.7 | 2.18× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 168 | $42.72 | 4.9% | 70 | 46.0 | 1.52× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 74 | $31.94 | 8.3% | 54 | 104.1 | 0.52× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 74 | $31.93 | 8.3% | 90 | 104.2 | 0.86× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 32.9% | $4.48 | 28.4% | 2 | 2532.3 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 32.7% | $4.15 | 26.2% | 1,663 | 2517.8 | 0.66× |
| P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 31.0% | $3.39 | 20.3% | 1,702 | 2389.6 | 0.71× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.24% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.03% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.89% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.87% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.18% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.51% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.49% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.51% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.56% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.07% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.94% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.45% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.30% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.13% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.08% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.11% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.7%sunny 0.1%covert 2.7%pink 63.9%Legendary 32.7%best hit —