REDDER

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$16.99

Advertised RTP

76.66%

EV $13.02 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.42%

307 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

79.89%±15.40259 openings

30 days

80.42%±14.18307 openings

since tracking started

80.42%±14.18307 openings

10.5%61.0%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	61.04%±49.7	—	odds
7d	259	79.89%±15.4	+0.3σ	odds
30d	307	80.42%±14.2	+0.4σ	odds
All	307	80.42%±14.2	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,940	$7,581	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 157,299	$784	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 149,274	$727	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 91,069	$478	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 86,604	$464	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 35,723	$305	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,137	$296	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 29,721	$283	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,371	$205	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,735	$156	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,373	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,346	$115	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,908	$107	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,521	$99.46	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,498	$98.94	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,284	$93.88	0.6%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,229	$92.49	0.6%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,201	$91.77	0.6%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 685	$75.79	0.8%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 491	$67.61	1.1%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 406	$63.34	1.2%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 366	$61.12	1.3%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$52.68	1.7%	1	1.3	0.77×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 214	$50.73	1.8%	1	1.4	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 121	$41.54	2.6%	6	2.5	2.36×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$39.83	2.8%	2	2.9	0.70×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 98	$38.48	3.0%	4	3.1	1.27×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$33.79	3.8%	4	4.5	0.89×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$33.46	3.8%	6	4.6	1.30×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$31.85	4.2%	6	5.3	1.14×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 44	$28.62	5.0%	5	7.0	0.72×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$23.98	6.5%	9	10.9	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$19.57	8.6%	19	17.6	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$16.58	10.3%	19	25.0	0.76×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	22.1%	$7.85	13.3%	72	68.3	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	24.2%	$6.32	11.7%	14	74.8	0.19×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	24.3%	$6.15	11.5%	50	75.2	0.66×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6🩶L,E,K,A🩶$16.99$6.470.38x4m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink🩶L,E,K,A🩶$16.99$6.340.37x4m

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6borabora$16.99$6.470.38x24m

USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedЛаурка$16.99$33.831.99x1h

SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedЛаурка$16.99$7.850.46x1h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkRad1k$16.99$6.330.37x1h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedЛаурка$16.99$16.580.98x1h

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientreactoR$16.99$31.711.87x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$16.99	76.66%	37
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$16.99	76.48%	37
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$16.99	76.46%	37
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$16.99	76.76%	37
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$16.99	77.09%	37
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$16.99	77.11%	37
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$16.99	77.09%	37
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$16.99	77.17%	37
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$16.99	77.22%	37
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	37
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	37
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	37
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	36
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$16.99	77.64%	36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.67%	36
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	36
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	36
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	36
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.59%	36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$16.99	77.70%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$16.99	78.05%	36
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$16.99	78.07%	37
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$16.99	77.97%	37
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	37
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$16.99	77.75%	37
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$16.99	77.73%	37
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$16.99	77.75%	37
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$16.99	77.71%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.9%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 41.3%red 0.3%Ancient 4.0%pink 24.2%#d32ee6 24.3%best hit —