REI DO MARKETING
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.79
Advertised RTP
74.31%
EV $2.07 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.31%
1,678 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.11% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.91% – 103.72%, 1,678 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,683 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,789 | $39.70 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 111 | $13.35 | 5.8% | 23 | 15.2 | 1.52× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 60 | $10.80 | 8.7% | 29 | 28.0 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 12.6% | $5.19 | 31.4% | 42 | 211.3 | 0.20× |
| AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 20.9% | $4.21 | 42.5% | 4 | 352.6 | 0.01× |
| MP7 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 63.9% | $0.35 | 10.9% | 175 | 1075.4 | 0.16× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.79 | 74.31% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.79 | 74.18% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.79 | 74.03% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.79 | 73.93% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.79 | 74.24% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.79 | 74.62% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.79 | 74.55% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.79 | 74.60% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.79 | 74.62% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.79 | 74.67% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.79 | 75.10% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.79 | 75.05% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.79 | 75.06% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.79 | 75.14% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.79 | 75.15% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.79 | 75.06% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.14% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.06% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.06% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.11% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.09% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.79 | 75.10% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.79 | 75.14% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.79 | 75.45% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.79 | 75.50% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.79 | 75.48% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.79 | 75.18% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.79 | 75.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.79 | 75.24% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.79 | 75.28% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.9%classified 1.7%Legendary 33.5%Rare 63.9%best hit —