Запрещенное

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.19

Advertised RTP

63.51%

EV $1.39 from 217 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.88%

3,038 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65.37%±17.86365 openings

7 days

73.35%±6.832,606 openings

30 days

72.88%±6.363,038 openings

since tracking started

72.88%±6.363,038 openings

47.0%65.5%84.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 64.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.52% – 79.24%, 3,038 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	365	65.37%±17.9	+0.2σ	odds
7d	2,606	73.35%±6.83	+2.6σ	odds
30d	3,038	72.88%±6.36	+2.7σ	odds
All	3,038	72.88%±6.36	+2.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values217 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,047 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,998	$1,138	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 199,985	$563	0.2%	1	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,970	$448	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,964	$424	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 199,955	$393	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,912	$315	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,885	$288	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,884	$287	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,830	$253	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,803	$240	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 199,547	$182	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 197,446	$102	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 196,588	$92.40	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 196,444	$91.11	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 195,767	$85.87	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 194,945	$80.82	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 193,656	$74.76	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 193,453	$73.95	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 193,156	$72.83	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 193,055	$72.46	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 192,910	$71.95	0.0%	1	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 191,769	$68.32	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 189,435	$62.61	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 189,007	$61.74	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 184,947	$55.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 183,582	$53.49	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 178,774	$48.66	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 164,419	$39.83	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 162,527	$39.00	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 162,177	$38.85	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 156,945	$36.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 150,542	$34.65	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 142,505	$32.35	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 140,378	$31.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 134,394	$30.36	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 126,134	$28.57	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 125,554	$28.45	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104,425	$24.61	0.0%	0	0.0	—
XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 102,253	$24.25	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 101,459	$24.13	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 99,407	$23.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 99,000	$23.73	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 96,214	$23.29	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 93,651	$22.90	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 92,759	$22.76	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 87,409	$21.95	0.0%	1	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 75,031	$20.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 69,566	$19.36	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 59,033	$17.85	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 58,828	$17.82	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 56,687	$17.52	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55,586	$17.36	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 54,910	$17.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 54,645	$17.22	0.0%	0	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 49,739	$16.50	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 49,169	$16.42	0.0%	1	0.1	—
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 42,896	$15.47	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 42,508	$15.41	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 42,072	$15.34	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 29,482	$13.27	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22,776	$12.01	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22,467	$11.94	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19,012	$11.22	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18,944	$11.20	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18,882	$11.19	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 16,253	$10.58	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15,503	$10.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,503	$10.15	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,642	$9.07	0.1%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 9,651	$8.76	0.1%	2	0.3	—
MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,964	$8.18	0.1%	2	0.4	—
Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 7,805	$8.12	0.1%	1	0.4	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,584	$8.04	0.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 6,666	$7.68	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,588	$7.65	0.1%	1	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,337	$7.10	0.1%	2	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,954	$6.92	0.1%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,793	$6.84	0.1%	1	0.6	—
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,132	$6.49	0.1%	1	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,452	$6.09	0.1%	2	0.9	—
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,235	$5.95	0.1%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 3,084	$5.85	0.1%	1	1.0	—
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,735	$5.60	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,656	$5.54	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,478	$5.41	0.2%	2	1.2	1.63×
Nova \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,257	$5.23	0.2%	1	1.3	0.74×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,223	$5.20	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,983	$5.00	0.2%	3	1.5	1.95×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,882	$4.90	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,754	$4.78	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,578	$4.60	0.2%	2	1.9	1.04×
AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,331	$4.32	0.2%	3	2.3	1.31×
XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,304	$4.29	0.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,284	$4.27	0.2%	0	2.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,270	$4.25	0.2%	1	2.4	0.42×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,196	$4.16	0.3%	2	2.5	0.79×
AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,168	$4.12	0.3%	5	2.6	1.92×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,034	$3.94	0.3%	7	2.9	2.38×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 955	$3.83	0.3%	4	3.2	1.25×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 920	$3.77	0.3%	2	3.3	0.60×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 876	$3.70	0.3%	1	3.5	0.29×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 820	$3.61	0.3%	2	3.7	0.54×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 619	$3.24	0.4%	5	4.9	1.02×
Nova \| Gila (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 548	$3.09	0.4%	9	5.6	1.62×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 535	$3.06	0.4%	9	5.7	1.58×
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 500	$2.98	0.4%	1	6.1	0.16×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 492	$2.96	0.4%	7	6.2	1.13×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 487	$2.95	0.4%	6	6.3	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 488	$2.95	0.4%	1	6.2	0.16×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 482	$2.94	0.4%	6	6.3	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 478	$2.93	0.4%	6	6.4	0.94×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 464	$2.89	0.4%	11	6.6	1.67×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 443	$2.84	0.5%	13	6.9	1.89×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 423	$2.79	0.5%	6	7.2	0.83×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 411	$2.76	0.5%	3	7.4	0.41×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 407	$2.74	0.5%	7	7.5	0.93×
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 402	$2.73	0.5%	11	7.6	1.45×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 402	$2.73	0.5%	16	7.6	2.11×
P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 397	$2.72	0.5%	5	7.7	0.65×
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 386	$2.69	0.5%	5	7.9	0.63×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 378	$2.66	0.5%	5	8.1	0.62×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 378	$2.66	0.5%	6	8.1	0.74×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 355	$2.59	0.5%	11	8.6	1.28×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 350	$2.58	0.5%	5	8.7	0.57×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 352	$2.58	0.5%	11	8.7	1.27×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 319	$2.48	0.6%	11	9.5	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 306	$2.44	0.6%	7	9.9	0.70×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 291	$2.38	0.6%	8	10.5	0.77×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 292	$2.38	0.6%	7	10.4	0.67×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 282	$2.35	0.6%	0	10.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 283	$2.35	0.6%	8	10.8	0.74×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 275	$2.32	0.6%	17	11.1	1.53×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 266	$2.29	0.6%	14	11.4	1.22×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 253	$2.24	0.6%	17	12.0	1.41×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 235	$2.16	0.7%	17	13.0	1.31×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 219	$2.09	0.7%	5	13.9	0.36×
Nova \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 216	$2.08	0.7%	18	14.1	1.28×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 217	$2.08	0.7%	25	14.1	1.78×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 204	$2.02	0.7%	1	15.0	0.07×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 202	$2.01	0.7%	15	15.1	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 197	$1.99	0.7%	0	15.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 198	$1.99	0.7%	8	15.4	0.52×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 193	$1.97	0.7%	6	15.8	0.38×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 190	$1.96	0.7%	17	16.0	1.06×
MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 189	$1.95	0.7%	7	16.1	0.43×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 184	$1.92	0.8%	4	16.6	0.24×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 180	$1.90	0.8%	16	16.9	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 175	$1.88	0.8%	33	17.4	1.90×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 176	$1.88	0.8%	4	17.3	0.23×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 153	$1.75	0.8%	10	19.9	0.50×
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 148	$1.72	0.8%	13	20.5	0.63×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 149	$1.72	0.8%	3	20.5	0.15×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$1.71	0.8%	18	20.8	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$1.71	0.8%	9	20.7	0.43×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 145	$1.70	0.8%	24	21.1	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 145	$1.70	0.8%	16	21.0	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$1.63	0.9%	16	22.6	0.71×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 134	$1.62	0.9%	20	22.8	0.88×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$1.61	0.9%	19	23.0	0.82×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 125	$1.56	0.9%	1	24.5	0.04×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 121	$1.53	0.9%	4	25.2	0.16×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$1.51	0.9%	19	25.6	0.74×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 115	$1.48	0.9%	23	26.4	0.87×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 110	$1.44	0.9%	36	27.8	1.30×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 107	$1.41	1.0%	24	28.6	0.84×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 102	$1.37	1.0%	30	29.8	1.01×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$1.30	1.0%	36	32.0	1.12×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$1.30	1.0%	34	31.9	1.07×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$1.26	1.0%	25	33.2	0.75×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$1.25	1.0%	40	33.8	1.19×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 89	$1.24	1.0%	38	34.0	1.12×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 89	$1.23	1.0%	16	34.4	0.47×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 89	$1.23	1.0%	27	34.3	0.79×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$1.22	1.0%	35	34.7	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$1.22	1.0%	40	34.6	1.16×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 87	$1.21	1.0%	29	35.1	0.83×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 86	$1.20	1.0%	13	35.5	0.37×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 87	$1.20	1.0%	38	35.2	1.08×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$1.18	1.0%	46	36.0	1.28×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 84	$1.17	1.0%	34	36.3	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 83	$1.16	1.0%	28	36.6	0.76×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.15	1.0%	41	37.1	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 82	$1.15	1.0%	37	37.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$1.13	1.0%	43	37.8	1.14×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$1.11	1.0%	27	38.5	0.70×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.10	1.0%	20	38.9	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 79	$1.10	1.0%	44	38.8	1.13×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 79	$1.10	1.0%	37	38.6	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 76	$1.07	1.0%	31	39.9	0.78×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 77	$1.07	1.0%	29	39.7	0.73×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$1.06	1.0%	18	40.1	0.45×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$1.04	1.0%	28	40.8	0.69×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$1.03	1.0%	34	41.2	0.83×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$1.02	1.0%	21	41.5	0.51×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$1.02	1.0%	42	41.5	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.01	1.0%	23	42.1	0.55×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.00	1.0%	42	42.1	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 70	$0.97	1.0%	30	43.4	0.69×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$0.95	1.0%	45	43.9	1.02×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$0.91	1.0%	28	45.0	0.62×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$0.90	1.0%	31	45.4	0.68×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$0.89	1.0%	34	45.8	0.74×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$0.87	1.0%	46	46.3	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$0.87	1.0%	58	46.3	1.25×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$0.86	0.9%	7	46.5	0.15×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 65	$0.85	0.9%	1	47.0	0.02×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$0.84	0.9%	60	47.1	1.27×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$0.83	0.9%	0	47.4	0.00×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$0.80	0.9%	43	48.1	0.89×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 63	$0.79	0.9%	48	48.4	0.99×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$0.78	0.9%	39	48.6	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$0.78	0.9%	41	48.6	0.84×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$0.73	0.9%	27	49.4	0.55×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$0.70	0.8%	43	49.8	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 61	$0.68	0.8%	56	50.0	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 61	$0.68	0.8%	29	50.0	0.58×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$0.68	0.8%	7	50.0	0.14×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareSmile$2.19$570260.1x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedInsite644$2.19$0.860.39x6m

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedТёплый$2.19$1.170.53x8m

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffКИБЕРСПИРТ$2.19$2.501.14x9m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDeadAngle$2.19$1.020.47x21m

Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffJOQQ$2.19$0.990.45x21m

Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$2.19$1.250.57x25m

P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violetRico$2.19$0.780.36x25m

Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$2.19$1.960.89x26m

SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violetRico$2.19$0.910.42x26m

AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedVTEC$2.19$1.170.53x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.19	63.51%	217
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.19	63.41%	217
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.19	63.40%	218
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.19	63.64%	217
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.19	63.93%	217
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.19	63.91%	217
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.19	63.93%	217
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.19	63.96%	215
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.19	64.01%	215
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.19	64.38%	214
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.19	64.36%	215
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.19	64.35%	216
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.19	64.36%	217
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.19	64.37%	217
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.19	64.38%	214
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	64.38%	215
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	64.36%	216
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.19	64.37%	218
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.19	64.38%	216
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	64.38%	216
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	64.34%	217
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.19	64.41%	217
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.19	64.71%	216
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.19	64.69%	217
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.19	64.63%	215
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.19	64.40%	216
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.19	64.47%	216
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.19	64.45%	217
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.19	64.46%	216
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.19	64.45%	215

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.1%restricted 40.3%rare 0.0%#8847ff 19.7%Mythical 14.4%violet 23.6%Restricted 0.1%uncommon 0.7%best hit $570 (260.1x)