Ретро-осень

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

77.92%

EV $0.52 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.16%

12.3K openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76.86%±3.991,196 openings

7 days

78.23%±1.429,620 openings

30 days

78.16%±1.2612.3K openings

since tracking started

78.16%±1.2612.3K openings

72.0%76.8%81.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,196	76.86%±3.99	−0.5σ	odds
7d	9,620	78.23%±1.42	−0.4σ	odds
30d	12.3K	78.16%±1.26	−0.8σ	odds
All	12.3K	78.16%±1.26	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,623	$18.91	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,376	$15.85	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 9,286	$15.10	0.3%	2	1.3	1.51×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,729	$12.20	0.3%	3	1.4	2.12×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 8,232	$10.72	0.2%	1	1.5	0.67×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,625	$9.47	0.2%	1	1.6	0.62×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,305	$8.94	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,000	$6.41	0.2%	1	2.5	0.41×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 4,329	$5.85	0.3%	3	2.8	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,961	$4.79	0.3%	3	4.2	0.72×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,455	$3.53	0.5%	8	8.5	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 595	$2.52	0.8%	7	20.7	0.34×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 202	$1.70	1.6%	74	61.2	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 127	$1.44	2.2%	158	96.8	1.63×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 101	$1.32	2.5%	92	122.2	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$1.12	3.2%	241	186.1	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$1.10	3.3%	259	195.7	1.32×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 41	$0.92	4.3%	374	301.7	1.24×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.84	4.9%	428	374.1	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.80	5.2%	434	420.8	1.03×
Charm \| Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon	1 in 18	$0.63	6.6%	674	679.1	0.99×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.60	7.0%	869	755.1	1.15×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.56	7.4%	857	851.6	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.54	7.5%	736	892.9	0.82×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.47	8.1%	914	1104.1	0.83×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	11.5%	$0.38	8.4%	838	1413.8	0.59×
Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.6%	$0.38	8.4%	1,051	1425.3	0.74×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	13.0%	$0.33	8.2%	1,329	1605.6	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	14.6%	$0.25	6.9%	1,448	1797.2	0.81×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkNURASSYL$0.67$1.101.64x4m

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffNURASSYL$0.67$0.360.54x4m

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff~~LeshiY~~$0.67$0.811.21x4m

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted~~LeshiY~~$0.67$0.841.25x4m

M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss$0.67$1.051.57x5m

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted💜💋♛ ₳₭łⱤ₳✿⎯$0.67$0.250.38x5m

M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet~~LeshiY~~$0.67$0.450.68x6m

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff~~LeshiY~~$0.67$0.360.54x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.67	77.92%	29
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	77.89%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	77.73%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	77.44%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	77.97%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	78.28%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	78.25%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	78.12%	29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	78.26%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	78.37%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	78.85%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	78.74%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	78.73%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	78.73%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	78.55%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	78.60%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.72%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.77%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	78.66%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	78.67%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.79%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.60%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	78.82%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	79.09%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	79.06%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	79.04%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	78.77%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	78.90%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	78.84%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	78.72%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 1.6%#4b69ff 0.0%rare 0.0%violet 29.4%restricted 36.6%#8847ff 19.7%Mythical 7.1%uncommon 5.5%best hit —