Revolution Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
75.22%
EV $8.27 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.79%
1,293 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.39% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.39% – 106.19%, 1,293 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,293 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.22%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.22% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.05% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.02% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.68% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.69% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.75% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.21% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.10% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.24% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.49% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.27% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.4%extraordinary 3.3%epic 0.1%Ancient 6.6%covert 7.2%pink 63.2%#8847ff 6.5%violet 7.7%Mythical 2.4%#4b69ff 1.3%milspec 0.9%blue 0.4%best hit —