Revolver Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$5.39
Advertised RTP
76.75%
EV $4.14 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
166.23%
104 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (129.11% – 203.35%, 104 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 9,983 | $861 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 9,865 | $428 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 7,624 | $151 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 4,439 | $94.78 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,108 | $78.32 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,009 | $77.11 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 19 | $11.98 | 15.2% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $10.43 | 19.1% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× |
| P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.1% | $9.30 | 22.7% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.24× |
| XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 76.9% | $2.02 | 37.6% | 48 | 80.0 | 0.60× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.75%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $5.39 | 76.75% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.39 | 76.58% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.34% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.33% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.71% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.39 | 77.05% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.03% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.02% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.10% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.16% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.39 | 77.53% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.61% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.52% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.62% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.61% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.49% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.64% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.39 | 77.98% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.39 | 77.99% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.94% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.62% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.70% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.64% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.39 | 77.68% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%classified 23.0%#8847ff 76.9%best hit $417 (77.29x)