Ricardo Quik
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.69
Advertised RTP
64.25%
EV $1.09 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
260.84%
630 openings, odds method
Variance
343.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 377
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 630 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,991 | $2,978 | 27.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 7,922 | $456 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,170 | $149 | 11.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 637 | $119 | 17.2% | 15 | 1.0 | — |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 325 | $94.01 | 26.7% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.09× |
| Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 40.9% | $0.15 | 5.8% | 0 | 258.2 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 29.6% | $0.11 | 3.0% | 0 | 187.0 | 0.00× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 28.9% | $0.11 | 2.9% | 336 | 182.2 | 1.84× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.69 | 64.25% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.69 | 64.10% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.69 | 63.95% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.69 | 63.93% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.69 | 64.19% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.69 | 64.47% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.69 | 64.48% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.69 | 64.47% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.69 | 64.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.69 | 64.58% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.69 | 64.93% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.69 | 64.91% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.69 | 64.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.69 | 64.94% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.69 | 64.93% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.69 | 64.93% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.94% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.90% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.93% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.92% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.94% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.69 | 64.87% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.69 | 64.98% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.69 | 65.27% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.69 | 65.26% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.69 | 65.19% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.69 | 64.95% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.69 | 65.03% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.69 | 65.01% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.69 | 65.03% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%Uncommon 40.9%Industrial Grade 29.6%#4b69ff 28.9%best hit $177 (105.0x)