Rising Sun

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$16.99

Advertised RTP

76.66%

EV $13.02 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

429.55%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

77.0%379.3%681.5%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	429.55%±251.5	—	odds
30d	1	429.55%±251.5	—	odds
All	1	429.55%±251.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38,334	$865	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,527	$533	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,434	$448	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,394	$393	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,758	$335	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 44	$78.07	13.5%	0	0.0	—
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$74.94	14.4%	1	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 39	$74.42	14.6%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	19.2%	$11.98	17.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	17.9%	$10.24	14.1%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear)weapon · #B0C3D9	13.5%	$6.68	6.9%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	11.7%	$5.62	5.0%	0	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D9	10.3%	$4.82	3.8%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	10.1%	$4.73	3.7%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 10	$4.66	3.6%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSom$16.99$72.984.30x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.66%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$16.99	76.66%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$16.99	76.49%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$16.99	76.47%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$16.99	76.77%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$16.99	77.10%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$16.99	77.10%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$16.99	77.10%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$16.99	77.14%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$16.99	77.21%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$16.99	77.67%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$16.99	77.63%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$16.99	77.64%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.58%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$16.99	77.71%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$16.99	78.05%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$16.99	78.06%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$16.99	77.98%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$16.99	77.74%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$16.99	77.75%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$16.99	77.74%	15
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$16.99	77.71%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%restricted 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%covert 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 2.3%mil spec 5.1%Industrial Grade 19.2%industrial 17.9%#B0C3D9 23.7%consumer 11.7%Consumer Grade 10.1%gray 9.9%best hit —