RK

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.59

Advertised RTP

63.55%

EV $1.01 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

7710.20%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

54.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 310

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

62.5%4163.8%8265.0%

Small sample. 14 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	6112.58%±1430.8	—	odds
7d	11	7832.65%±431.6	—	odds
30d	14	7710.20%±383.5	—	odds
All	14	7710.20%±383.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,278	$348	6.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,220	$262	8.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 1,838	$204	11.0%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 459	$122	26.2%	4	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 252	$98.94	38.8%	6	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| High Beam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	29.8%	$0.15	4.5%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	19.3%	$0.10	1.9%	0	2.7	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	16.5%	$0.09	1.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	11.6%	$0.06	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 11	$0.05	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.04	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$0.03	0.1%	0	0.7	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicJPCadeirante-.$1.59$188118.0x4d

M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epicsnkrsl$1.59$168105.5x2d

M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epictorch$1.59$15597.45x1d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTTTRROOOOLL$1.59$12880.65x4d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifieddasten911$1.59$12678.94x1d

AWP | Graphiteweapon · classifiedJPCadeirante-.$1.59$12578.80x8d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedkamo_sss$1.59$12478.08x7d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedtorch$1.59$12477.76x1d

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttorch$1.59$97.1961.13x13h

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttorch$1.59$96.9961.00x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttorch$1.59$97.1961.13x13h

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedtorch$1.59$12477.76x1d

M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epictorch$1.59$15597.45x1d

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttorch$1.59$96.9961.00x1d

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdasten911$1.59$95.7460.21x1d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifieddasten911$1.59$12678.94x1d

M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epicsnkrsl$1.59$168105.5x2d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicJPCadeirante-.$1.59$188118.0x4d

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert爪卂尺丨卂$1.59$95.7360.21x4d

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTTTRROOOOLL$1.59$12880.65x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.55%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.59	63.55%	12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.59	63.42%	12
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.59	63.40%	12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.59	63.64%	12
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.59	63.92%	12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.59	63.93%	12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.59	63.93%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.59	63.96%	12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.59	64.02%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.59	64.38%	12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.59	64.37%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.59	64.36%	12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.59	64.39%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.59	64.38%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.59	64.38%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.59	64.39%	12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.59	64.35%	12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.59	64.37%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.59	64.36%	12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.59	64.37%	12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.59	64.31%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.59	64.42%	12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.59	64.71%	12
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.59	64.70%	12
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.59	64.64%	12
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.59	64.39%	12
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.59	64.46%	12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.59	64.44%	12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.59	64.46%	12
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.59	64.43%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 16.5%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.4%epic 0.1%classified 0.2%Uncommon 58.2%industrial 24.5%best hit $188 (118.0x)