Rolls-Royce Cullinan

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$339.00

Advertised RTP

73.16%

EV $248.01 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.40%

73 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

65 openings · below min

30 days

73 openings · below min

since tracking started

73 openings · below min

32.5%58.3%84.0%

Small sample. 73 openings and 23.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	58.23%±24.9	—	odds
7d	65	65.92%±10.0	—	odds
30d	73	65.40%±9.49	—	odds
All	73	65.40%±9.49	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 170	$867	2.1%	1	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 135	$799	2.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$557	4.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 35	$487	5.6%	2	2.1	0.97×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$456	6.2%	1	2.4	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$425	6.9%	4	2.9	1.37×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$352	9.0%	3	4.6	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$348	9.1%	2	4.7	0.42×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$328	9.8%	7	5.4	1.30×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	15.4%	$225	14.0%	3	11.2	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	24.1%	$160	15.5%	15	17.6	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	26.8%	$141	15.2%	22	19.6	1.12×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedFarga$339$8562.52x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold___$339$5821.72x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryArych$339$5201.53x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary𝘐𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘓𝘰𝘬ito$339$5181.53x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · redMPC TURN OFF CAPS$339$1120.33x11h

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · redMPC TURN OFF CAPS$339$1120.33x12h

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$339$3801.12x12h

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedОвик ВодолаZ$339$3801.12x19h

★ Bayonet | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertОвик ВодолаZ$339$1410.41x19h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCorona$339$1610.48x20h

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · reddow$339$1130.33x21h

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted123123123$339$3811.12x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.16%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$339	73.16%	12
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$339	72.97%	12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$339	72.81%	13
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$339	72.79%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$339	73.07%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$339	73.39%	13
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$339	73.40%	13
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$339	73.38%	13
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$339	73.44%	13
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$339	73.51%	13
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$339	73.92%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$339	73.89%	13
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$339	73.88%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$339	73.91%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$339	73.91%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$339	73.91%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$339	73.92%	13
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$339	73.89%	13
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$339	73.90%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$339	73.91%	13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$339	73.91%	13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$339	73.85%	13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$339	73.96%	13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$339	74.30%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$339	74.31%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$339	74.22%	13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$339	73.92%	13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$339	74.01%	12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$339	74.00%	13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$339	74.01%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 8.0%sunny 16.1%gold 2.0%extraordinary 2.8%covert 54.3%restricted 10.5%covert knife 6.3%best hit $856 (2.52x)