Safehouse
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.10
Advertised RTP
72.60%
EV $0.07 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
131.40%
75 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 75 openings and 32.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 240 | $0.56 | 3.2% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 93 | $0.40 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 13.7% | $0.12 | 22.1% | 34 | 10.3 | 3.31× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.11 | 22.1% | 30 | 11.2 | 2.67× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 18.6% | $0.06 | 14.8% | 0 | 13.9 | 0.00× |
| Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2 | 17.9% | $0.05 | 12.3% | 0 | 13.4 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 16.8% | $0.04 | 9.9% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| M249 | Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 16.6% | $0.04 | 9.6% | 0 | 12.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.10 | 72.60% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 72.36% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.25% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.29% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.63% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 72.97% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.95% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.90% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.77% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.65% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 73.43% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 73.44% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 73.39% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.29% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.56% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.39% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.46% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.34% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.41% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.30% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.33% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 73.72% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 73.77% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.66% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.37% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.58% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 73.43% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 17.9%mil spec 15.4%restricted 1.1%#4b69ff 13.7%industrial 35.2%#87c7ff 16.8%best hit —