SAH4R

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$5.39

Advertised RTP

76.75%

EV $4.14 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.92%

3,514 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.71%±12.18344 openings

7 days

78.51%±4.282,969 openings

30 days

77.92%±3.943,514 openings

since tracking started

77.92%±3.943,514 openings

56.0%69.8%83.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	344	68.71%±12.2	−1.3σ	odds
7d	2,969	78.51%±4.28	+0.5σ	odds
30d	3,514	77.92%±3.94	+0.2σ	odds
All	3,514	77.92%±3.94	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,515 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,948	$314	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,925	$277	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,784	$194	0.5%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,596	$156	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,014	$114	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,847	$107	0.3%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,502	$96.97	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,379	$94.01	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,639	$80.40	0.3%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,828	$53.07	0.3%	1	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,212	$48.83	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,059	$47.81	0.3%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,567	$44.58	0.3%	1	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,850	$39.91	0.3%	2	1.2	1.62×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,818	$39.70	0.3%	3	1.2	2.41×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,732	$39.13	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,689	$31.82	0.5%	0	2.1	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,530	$30.59	0.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,212	$27.93	0.6%	4	2.9	1.38×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 740	$23.22	0.8%	3	4.7	0.63×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 439	$19.22	1.1%	10	8.0	1.25×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 325	$17.26	1.3%	14	10.8	1.29×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 231	$15.29	1.6%	11	15.2	0.72×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 114	$11.87	2.5%	41	30.9	1.33×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 93	$11.02	2.9%	26	37.8	0.69×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$10.43	3.2%	75	43.9	1.71×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$8.94	4.1%	50	66.3	0.75×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 46	$8.44	4.5%	79	77.1	1.02×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.5%	$4.22	10.7%	432	369.9	1.17×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	10.8%	$4.15	10.9%	420	381.1	1.10×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	12.3%	$3.85	11.5%	415	433.3	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	15.9%	$3.25	12.5%	405	557.7	0.73×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	19.6%	$2.70	12.8%	676	688.7	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	22.0%	$2.36	12.5%	284	771.6	0.37×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedst1x$5.39$2.330.43x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedEco$5.39$2.700.50x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBuLLeT$5.39$2.700.50x1h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryLC dA BiZaO$5.39$4.050.75x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLC dA BiZaO$5.39$2.700.50x1h

AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLC dA BiZaO$5.39$4.180.78x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedidk$5.39$2.700.50x2h

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified𝐒𝐌𝟏𝐋𝐄$5.39$2.350.44x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$5.39	76.75%	34
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$5.39	76.53%	34
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$5.39	76.41%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$5.39	76.44%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$5.39	76.70%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$5.39	77.05%	34
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$5.39	77.05%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$5.39	77.05%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$5.39	77.07%	34
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$5.39	77.11%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.39	77.53%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.39	77.52%	34
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.39	77.51%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	34
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$5.39	77.55%	34
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	34
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	34
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.55%	34
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	34
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$5.39	77.61%	34
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.49%	34
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.39	77.60%	33
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$5.39	77.99%	34
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$5.39	77.97%	34
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$5.39	77.85%	34
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$5.39	77.59%	33
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$5.39	77.66%	34
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.39	77.64%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.39	77.63%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%#8847ff 0.0%classified 37.7%Ancient 0.1%red 0.1%Legendary 11.9%#d32ee6 2.2%Mythical 12.3%violet 15.9%restricted 19.6%best hit —