Sand mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
66.60%
EV $0.99 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
144.26%
3,482 openings, odds method
Variance
47.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 153
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.36% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (121.24% – 167.28%, 3,482 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,540 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 116,095 | $1,036 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 53,263 | $663 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 27,062 | $501 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 21,701 | $460 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 1 in 846 | $150 | 17.9% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.91× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 191 | $91.04 | 48.0% | 55 | 18.5 | 2.97× |
| AUG | Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 25.6% | $0.35 | 8.9% | 538 | 907.5 | 0.59× |
| MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 24.0% | $0.32 | 7.8% | 624 | 848.2 | 0.74× |
| MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1 | 20.5% | $0.28 | 5.7% | 641 | 725.8 | 0.88× |
| FAMAS | Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 18.6% | $0.25 | 4.7% | 664 | 659.1 | 1.01× |
| M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 1 in 16 | $0.08 | 0.5% | 155 | 220.0 | 0.70× |
| MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 1 in 23 | $0.06 | 0.3% | 144 | 156.2 | 0.92× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.49 | 66.60% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.45% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.43% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.67% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.49 | 66.97% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.97% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.97% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.04% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.09% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.49 | 67.42% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.49 | 67.42% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.47% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.38% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.52% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.49 | 67.79% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.49 | 67.81% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.72% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.54% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.53% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.49 | 67.55% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.49 | 67.51% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 20.5%covert 0.5%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.1%mil spec 68.2%milspec 10.6%best hit $158 (106.1x)