Saullo
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$57.99
Advertised RTP
76.69%
EV $44.47 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.69%
379 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.86% – 93.53%, 379 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 379 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 4,670 | $663 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 149 | $205 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal | 1 in 57 | $146 | 5.7% | 12 | 6.6 | 1.81× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 22 | $101 | 10.5% | 29 | 17.6 | 1.65× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 21 | $99.95 | 10.7% | 15 | 18.0 | 0.83× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $87.12 | 13.1% | 6 | 25.3 | 0.24× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $85.28 | 13.5% | 1 | 26.6 | 0.04× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 10.4% | $71.66 | 16.8% | 31 | 39.5 | 0.78× |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 39.3% | $24.61 | 21.8% | 96 | 149.0 | 0.64× |
| Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted | 24.7% | $8.12 | 4.5% | 54 | 93.7 | 0.58× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $57.99 | 76.69% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.51% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.79% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $57.99 | 77.13% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.15% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.12% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.19% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $57.99 | 77.66% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $57.99 | 77.65% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.69% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.66% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.67% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.61% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.73% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $57.99 | 78.09% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $57.99 | 78.10% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $57.99 | 78.00% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.69% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.78% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.77% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $57.99 | 77.78% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $57.99 | 77.75% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 10.5%classified 0.7%Immortal 1.8%covert 18.3%covert knife 4.8%Mythical 39.3%Restricted 24.7%best hit —