Saullo mining

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.89

Advertised RTP

65.03%

EV $1.23 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

4240.45%

903 openings, odds method

Variance

81.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 56

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

253 openings · below min

7 days

4212.23%±65.22769 openings

30 days

4240.45%±60.57903 openings

since tracking started

4240.45%±60.57903 openings

64.5%2284.0%4503.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (4179.88% – 4301.02%, 903 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	253	4391.33%±111.6	—	odds
7d	769	4212.23%±65.2	+124.6σ	odds
30d	903	4240.45%±60.6	+135.1σ	odds
All	903	4240.45%±60.6	+135.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 903 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 4,972	$1,050	17.2%	16	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,594	$191	6.0%	22	0.3	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,317	$177	6.2%	28	0.4	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 838	$109	10.6%	72	1.1	66.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 64	$43.48	55.1%	378	14.1	26.87×
Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	19.5%	$0.08	1.3%	0	175.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	16.4%	$0.07	0.9%	0	148.3	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	14.1%	$0.06	0.7%	0	127.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.8%	$0.05	0.6%	0	115.9	0.00×
P90 \| Ash Wood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	12.4%	$0.05	0.5%	0	111.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	11.6%	$0.05	0.5%	0	105.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	11.4%	$0.05	0.4%	0	102.8	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Dopplerknife · rareReserva$1.89$1,134599.8x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700OgNo$1.89$1,133599.7x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700Thaisinha$1.89$1,130597.6x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700IGROGAME$1.89$1,119592.3x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700lestor$1.89$1,104584.0x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700† Ameno †$1.89$1,097580.7x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700CASLU$1.89$1,094578.9x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700bruxo aposentado$1.89$1,092577.7x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700IGROGAME$1.89$1,084573.5x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700bruxo aposentado$1.89$1,084573.4x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny.60$1.89$43.5023.02x33m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x39m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x40m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x43m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x44m

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryAsgardec$1.89$10957.74x47m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x49m

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryAsgardec$1.89$10957.74x49m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x50m

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunnyAsgardec$1.89$43.5023.02x51m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.89	65.03%	12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.89	64.88%	12
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.89	64.87%	12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.89	65.11%	12
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.89	65.40%	12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.89	65.40%	12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.89	65.39%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.89	65.45%	12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.89	65.50%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.89	65.87%	12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.89	65.84%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.89	65.84%	12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.89	65.86%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.89	65.86%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.89	65.86%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	65.87%	12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	65.85%	12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.89	65.86%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.89	65.86%	12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	65.87%	12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	65.81%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.89	65.91%	12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.89	66.21%	12
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.89	66.22%	12
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.89	66.14%	12
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.89	65.88%	12
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.89	65.96%	12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.89	65.95%	12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.89	65.96%	12
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.89	65.93%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 11.6%#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%sunny 1.6%industrial 72.5%#5e98d9 14.1%best hit $1,134 (599.8x)