Свирепый медведь
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.21
Advertised RTP
62.67%
EV $0.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
3711.19%
83 openings, odds method
Variance
30.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 83 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 83 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 7,712 | $45.59 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,971 | $22.82 | 5.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,017 | $19.22 | 7.2% | 3 | 0.0 | — |
| Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 560 | $11.85 | 16.1% | 11 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 1 in 71 | $5.84 | 62.6% | 66 | 1.2 | 56.36× |
| Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 98.3% | <$0.01 | 3.7% | 0 | 81.6 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 62.67% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 62.65% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.55% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.49% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.77% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 63.01% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 63.04% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 63.02% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 62.94% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 62.95% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 63.29% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 63.28% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 63.28% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.41% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.45% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.42% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.45% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.40% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.48% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 63.69% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 63.74% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.64% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.42% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.49% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.51% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 63.55% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listeduncommon 0.0%classified 0.3%#d32ce6 1.4%consumer 98.3%best hit $42.76 (203.6x)