sh1ro
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
72.38%
EV $0.48 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
229.61%
12.4K openings, odds method
Variance
177.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 554
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 73.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (205.92% – 253.30%, 12,364 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 72.38% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.20% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.21% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.46% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 72.77% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.79% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.78% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.77% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.87% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 73.28% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 73.27% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.33% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.29% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.27% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.24% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 73.67% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 73.73% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.62% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.43% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.37% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 73.40% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%extraordinary 0.1%milspec 34.8%#4b69ff 46.8%blue 18.2%best hit $506 (755.2x)