Shadow Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

76.01%

EV $2.58 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.20%

111 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

43.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

82 openings · below min

30 days

71.20%±18.97111 openings

since tracking started

71.20%±18.97111 openings

50.5%92.5%134.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	92.51%±41.3	—	odds
7d	82	76.89%±22.1	—	odds
30d	111	71.20%±19.0	−0.6σ	odds
All	111	71.20%±19.0	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,476	$127	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,352	$86.49	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,668	$78.61	0.5%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,792	$60.93	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,285	$56.56	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,274	$56.47	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 2,567	$50.34	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,370	$38.76	1.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$15.56	5.5%	1	1.0	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 22	$8.54	14.7%	3	4.9	0.61×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 12	$6.58	20.7%	7	9.0	0.78×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	30.0%	$1.88	21.9%	5	33.3	0.15×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	28.7%	$1.53	17.1%	2	31.9	0.06×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	27.5%	$1.37	14.6%	35	30.6	1.15×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Rico$3.39$6.591.94x37m

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalRico$3.39$1.320.39x37m

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violetRico$3.39$2.580.76x37m

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$3.39$1.530.45x41m

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalRico$3.39$1.320.39x41m

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Rico$3.39$8.322.45x41m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedRico$3.39$15.384.54x41m

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$3.39$1.530.45x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	76.01%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.87%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.81%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.17%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.37%	13
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.44%	13
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.38%	13
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.49%	13
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.49%	13
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.93%	13
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.93%	13
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.98%	13
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	13
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	13
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	77.05%	13
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	13
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	13
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	13
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.82%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.32%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.28%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.34%	13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.09%	13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.11%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.14%	13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.01%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%gold 0.1%Immortal 0.0%classified 0.9%#d32ee6 12.6%violet 30.0%restricted 28.7%Mythical 27.5%best hit —