Shattered Web

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.29

Advertised RTP

76.27%

EV $1.75 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.37%

718 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.63%±37.01107 openings

7 days

75.85%±15.62640 openings

30 days

77.37%±14.73718 openings

since tracking started

77.37%±14.73718 openings

40.0%77.8%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	107	77.63%±37.0	+0.1σ	odds
7d	640	75.85%±15.6	−0.2σ	odds
30d	718	77.37%±14.7	+0.0σ	odds
All	718	77.37%±14.7	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 718 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,980	$250	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,977	$237	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 9,938	$171	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,894	$142	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,714	$101	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,422	$79.51	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,184	$51.77	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,278	$43.48	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,329	$32.71	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,479	$17.39	0.7%	2	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,182	$15.93	0.8%	0	0.6	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 230	$8.77	2.2%	0	3.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$3.70	8.8%	24	29.9	0.80×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$2.94	11.6%	63	49.4	1.28×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	13.5%	$1.96	15.2%	109	97.1	1.12×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.7%	$1.72	15.4%	42	112.6	0.37×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.6%	$1.51	15.2%	175	126.6	1.38×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	20.7%	$1.04	12.3%	116	148.6	0.78×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	20.7%	$0.93	11.0%	9	148.9	0.06×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Balance (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specMR_pResidenT(business_)$2.29$1.050.46x57s

MP7 | Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMindFree$2.29$1.900.83x11m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedСырок$2.29$1.500.66x54m

MP7 | Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedСырок$2.29$1.910.83x54m

Dual Berettas | Balance (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specFeRlEsS$2.29$1.050.46x1h

R8 Revolver | Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFeRlEsS$2.29$1.270.55x1h

MP7 | Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedFeRlEsS$2.29$1.910.83x1h

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedFeRlEsS$2.29$1.500.66x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.27%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.29	76.27%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.29	76.19%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.29	76.17%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.29	76.57%	18
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.29	76.82%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.29	76.78%	18
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.29	76.78%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.29	76.77%	18
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.29	76.92%	18
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.29	77.46%	18
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.29	77.38%	18
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.29	77.39%	18
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.29	77.41%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.29	77.35%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.29	77.37%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.29	77.32%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.29	77.27%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.29	77.40%	18
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.29	77.37%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.29	77.30%	18
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.29	77.32%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.29	77.49%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.29	77.79%	18
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.29	77.74%	18
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.29	77.68%	18
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.29	77.28%	18
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.29	77.33%	18
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.29	77.42%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.29	77.46%	19
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.29	77.44%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.6%violet 4.2%restricted 53.7%mil spec 41.4%best hit —