Shiba

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$7.49

Advertised RTP

76.66%

EV $5.74 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.05%

2,105 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.96%±6.67378 openings

7 days

75.91%±3.071,826 openings

30 days

76.05%±2.872,105 openings

since tracking started

76.05%±2.872,105 openings

67.5%75.0%82.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	378	74.96%±6.67	−0.5σ	odds
7d	1,826	75.91%±3.07	−0.9σ	odds
30d	2,105	76.05%±2.87	−1.0σ	odds
All	2,105	76.05%±2.87	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 92,158	$208	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69,352	$177	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,839	$116	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 22,546	$110	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13,817	$91.77	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,924	$75.38	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,958	$68.27	0.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,284	$60.93	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,269	$40.17	0.6%	1	1.7	0.60×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,147	$38.80	0.6%	2	1.8	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$38.24	0.6%	1	1.9	0.52×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 690	$32.57	0.8%	5	3.1	1.63×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 647	$31.85	0.9%	1	3.3	0.31×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 583	$30.73	0.9%	4	3.6	1.10×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 568	$30.45	0.9%	2	3.7	0.54×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 475	$28.62	1.0%	4	4.4	0.90×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 288	$24.00	1.5%	6	7.3	0.82×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 273	$23.58	1.5%	9	7.7	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 158	$19.36	2.1%	17	13.4	1.27×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$12.25	4.4%	45	43.8	1.03×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$12.01	4.6%	41	46.0	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 43	$11.63	4.8%	48	49.6	0.97×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$11.08	5.1%	82	55.5	1.48×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$10.15	5.7%	75	67.7	1.11×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$6.49	8.3%	177	155.8	1.14×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$6.44	8.4%	122	157.2	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$5.68	8.7%	200	186.5	1.07×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	11.2%	$4.47	8.7%	7	236.1	0.03×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.6%	$4.26	8.6%	222	244.0	0.91×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	12.7%	$3.46	7.7%	262	268.2	0.98×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	13.0%	$2.91	6.6%	248	274.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.9%	$2.74	6.2%	198	273.2	0.72×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedISIYON$7.49$2.700.36x15m

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink(#\\™//#)$7.49$3.000.40x17m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted(#\\™//#)$7.49$2.700.36x20m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted(#\\™//#)$7.49$2.700.36x23m

MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedКИБЕРСПИРТ$7.49$6.470.86x35m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryКИБЕРСПИРТ$7.49$3.560.48x36m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkBRUTALITY?$7.49$4.470.60x39m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary002$7.49$5.690.76x41m

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted002$7.49$10.111.35x41m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkP1NKMAN$7.49$4.470.60x48m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$7.49	76.66%	32
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$7.49	76.51%	32
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$7.49	76.48%	32
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$7.49	76.76%	32
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$7.49	77.12%	32
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$7.49	77.12%	32
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$7.49	77.09%	32
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$7.49	77.15%	32
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$7.49	77.21%	32
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$7.49	77.66%	32
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.49	77.64%	32
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$7.49	77.61%	32
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$7.49	77.63%	31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$7.49	77.64%	32
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$7.49	77.65%	32
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	77.65%	32
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	77.64%	32
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$7.49	77.64%	32
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$7.49	77.63%	32
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	77.63%	32
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	77.58%	32
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$7.49	77.67%	32
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$7.49	78.08%	32
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$7.49	78.06%	31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$7.49	77.95%	32
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$7.49	77.66%	32
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$7.49	77.75%	31
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$7.49	77.75%	31
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.49	77.74%	32
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$7.49	77.71%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 24.8%extraordinary 0.1%Ancient 0.5%red 0.2%pink 24.5%restricted 25.7%Legendary 23.9%best hit —