Shure SM7B

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.09

Advertised RTP

73.06%

EV $0.07 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.48%

993 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

91.54%±4.48860 openings

30 days

90.48%±4.17993 openings

since tracking started

90.48%±4.17993 openings

72.5%98.8%125.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 73.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.31% – 94.65%, 993 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	101.67%±22.7	—	odds
7d	860	91.54%±4.48	+7.7σ	odds
30d	993	90.48%±4.17	+7.8σ	odds
All	993	90.48%±4.17	+7.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 993 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,445	$2.32	0.4%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 9,152	$1.99	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 9,012	$1.88	0.3%	2	0.1	—
Charm \| Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff	1 in 8,518	$1.62	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 6,628	$1.13	0.3%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 6,661	$1.13	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,437	$1.10	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 4,909	$0.89	0.3%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,814	$0.66	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Charm \| Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon	1 in 2,237	$0.59	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,647	$0.52	0.5%	1	0.6	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,665	$0.52	0.5%	0	0.6	—
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 1,111	$0.45	0.6%	0	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 686	$0.37	0.8%	1	1.4	0.69×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 625	$0.36	0.9%	5	1.6	3.14×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 488	$0.33	1.0%	4	2.0	1.96×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 265	$0.27	1.5%	2	3.7	0.53×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 197	$0.24	1.8%	8	5.0	1.59×
FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$0.12	5.7%	37	31.5	1.18×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.12	5.7%	23	31.4	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.10	7.3%	66	48.9	1.35×
Charm \| Lil' Avacharm · uncommon	1 in 19	$0.09	7.6%	59	53.1	1.11×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 10	$0.07	10.0%	8	98.8	0.08×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.3%	$0.05	10.7%	249	131.9	1.89×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	14.1%	$0.05	10.7%	42	139.7	0.30×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	14.6%	$0.05	10.6%	282	144.7	1.95×
Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	14.6%	$0.05	10.6%	0	144.7	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	15.2%	$0.04	10.4%	0	150.5	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1shot ♛$0.09$0.121.33x39m

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1shot ♛$0.09$0.050.60x39m

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffFaHaTiK$0.09$0.050.60x2h

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · RareSigaretu$0.09$0.091.01x2h

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMisti$0.09$0.050.54x4h

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMisti$0.09$0.050.53x4h

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMisti$0.09$0.050.59x4h

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMisti$0.09$0.050.54x4h

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMisti$0.09$0.050.59x4h

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffGost$0.09$0.050.53x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.09	73.06%	28
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.09	72.89%	28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.09	72.89%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.09	73.22%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.09	73.54%	28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.09	73.47%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.09	73.73%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.09	73.57%	28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.09	73.32%	28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.09	73.71%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.09	73.81%	28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.09	73.81%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.09	73.70%	28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.09	74.11%	28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.09	74.06%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	74.05%	28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	73.77%	28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.09	73.91%	28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.09	74.03%	28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	74.12%	28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	73.76%	28
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.09	74.11%	28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.09	74.15%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.09	74.25%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.09	74.04%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.09	73.80%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.09	73.99%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.09	74.09%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.09	73.78%	28
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.09	73.88%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMythical 0.0%#8847ff 0.2%pink 0.0%restricted 0.1%violet 0.0%blue 3.2%uncommon 5.4%common 0.1%Rare 5.3%#4b69ff 46.0%milspec 9.9%#87c7ff 14.6%#5e98d9 15.2%best hit —