Sirens

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.21

Advertised RTP

73.97%

EV $0.16 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,934	$115	0.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 198,119	$37.55	0.1%	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 193,614	$24.80	0.1%	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 187,425	$19.57	0.1%	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 186,348	$19.00	0.1%	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 178,616	$16.13	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 43,845	$5.20	0.1%	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14,728	$3.41	0.1%	—
Nova \| Gila (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11,163	$3.09	0.2%	—
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 7,280	$2.66	0.2%	—
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,709	$2.29	0.3%	—
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,581	$2.08	0.4%	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,406	$1.51	0.7%	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 627	$1.15	1.2%	—
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 426	$1.01	1.5%	—
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 128	$0.66	3.3%	—
P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 81	$0.55	4.4%	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$0.44	6.3%	—
MAG-7 \| Sonar (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 39	$0.42	6.9%	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$0.41	7.0%	—
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$0.41	7.2%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.36	8.3%	—
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$0.36	8.4%	—
SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$0.32	9.8%	—
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.30	10.6%	—
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	16.8%	$0.08	8.7%	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	14.8%	$0.06	5.6%	—
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	13.2%	$0.05	4.2%	—
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 12	$0.03	1.5%	—
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer	1 in 12	$0.03	1.4%	—
MP7 \| Army Recon (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 16	$0.02	0.8%	—
PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 41	<$0.01	0.1%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.21	73.97%	32
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.21	73.69%	32
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.21	73.73%	32
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.21	74.06%	32
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.21	74.33%	32
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.21	74.40%	32
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.21	74.31%	32
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.21	74.28%	32
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.21	74.40%	32
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.21	74.87%	32
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.21	74.90%	32
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.21	74.90%	32
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.21	74.86%	32
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.21	74.95%	32
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.21	74.84%	32
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.21	74.84%	32
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.21	74.86%	32
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.21	74.77%	32
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.21	74.81%	32
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.21	74.93%	32
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.21	74.83%	32
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.21	74.95%	32
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.21	75.30%	32
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.21	75.24%	32
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.21	75.21%	32
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.21	74.92%	32
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.21	75.00%	32
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.21	75.03%	32
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.21	74.89%	32
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.21	74.88%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 3.0%Mythical 0.0%violet 3.8%blue 8.9%mil spec 3.9%milspec 35.0%#8847ff 3.6%#4b69ff 16.8%consumer 10.7%Consumer 8.1%#777777 6.1%