Small Arms Charms
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.13
Advertised RTP
71.80%
EV $0.09 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.68%
4,436 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 72.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.77% – 81.60%, 4,436 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,440 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Semi-Preciouscharm · rare | 1 in 9,945 | $8.64 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Charm | Baby Karat CTcharm · rare | 1 in 9,896 | $6.95 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Charm | Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary | 1 in 8,730 | $2.90 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| Charm | Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ff | 1 in 7,709 | $2.28 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Charm | Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6 | 1 in 3,029 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| Charm | Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon | 1 in 575 | $0.59 | 1.1% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| Charm | POP Artcharm · #8847ff | 1 in 360 | $0.50 | 1.5% | 26 | 12.3 | 2.11× |
| Charm | Hot Handscharm · #8847ff | 1 in 154 | $0.37 | 2.6% | 40 | 28.8 | 1.39× |
| Charm | Disco MACcharm · uncommon | 1 in 93 | $0.31 | 3.6% | 59 | 47.9 | 1.23× |
| Charm | Baby's AKcharm · Rare | 1 in 15 | $0.15 | 10.7% | 217 | 297.5 | 0.73× |
| Charm | Whittle Knifecharm · Rare | 11.7% | $0.11 | 14.1% | 470 | 520.4 | 0.90× |
| Charm | Pocket AWPcharm · Rare | 14.4% | $0.10 | 15.2% | 452 | 637.2 | 0.71× |
| Charm | Stitch-Loadedcharm · Rare | 20.5% | $0.07 | 16.2% | 866 | 909.4 | 0.95× |
| Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare | 21.0% | $0.07 | 16.4% | 1,196 | 932.0 | 1.28× |
| Charm | Backsplashcharm · #4b69ff | 23.5% | $0.06 | 15.9% | 1,099 | 1043.1 | 1.05× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 71.80%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.13 | 71.80% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 71.67% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.61% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.23% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.81% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 71.95% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 71.96% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 71.86% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.28% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.00% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 72.60% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 72.33% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 72.42% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.64% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.39% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.68% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.38% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.59% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.48% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.52% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.50% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.40% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.76% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 72.84% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 73.07% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.65% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.61% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.68% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.63% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 72.80% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%Legendary 0.0%#8847ff 0.9%#d32ce6 0.0%uncommon 1.3%Rare 74.2%#4b69ff 23.5%best hit $8.62 (66.31x)