Snakebite Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.53

Advertised RTP

76.05%

EV $0.40 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.60%

2,527 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

39.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.15%±17.88153 openings

7 days

98.66%±5.022,305 openings

30 days

97.60%±4.822,527 openings

since tracking started

97.60%±4.822,527 openings

73.5%92.0%110.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.13% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.77% – 102.42%, 2,527 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	153	92.15%±17.9	+1.8σ	odds
7d	2,305	98.66%±5.02	+8.4σ	odds
30d	2,527	97.60%±4.82	+8.3σ	odds
All	2,527	97.60%±4.82	+8.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,527 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 9,460	$31.18	0.8%	2	0.3	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,437	$30.73	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 329	$3.77	2.8%	42	7.7	5.46×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 254	$3.43	3.4%	16	10.0	1.61×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 248	$3.40	3.4%	15	10.2	1.47×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 242	$3.37	3.5%	23	10.5	2.20×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.68	15.3%	354	229.8	1.54×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$0.38	9.1%	316	247.6	1.28×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10	$0.37	9.1%	32	247.1	0.13×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$0.36	8.7%	374	244.3	1.53×
Negev \| dev_texture (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.34	8.1%	323	239.6	1.35×
SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.34	7.8%	31	237.6	0.13×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.31	6.9%	22	227.7	0.10×
Nova \| Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 12	$0.28	5.8%	87	214.8	0.41×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 12	$0.25	5.1%	0	203.4	0.00×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.24	4.8%	118	198.6	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.24	4.7%	60	197.6	0.30×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancientrina$0.53$30.5857.70x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffMaestro$0.53$0.390.74x1h

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffЧёртов Джереми Ди$0.53$0.390.74x1h

Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil SpecMisti$0.53$0.280.52x3h

Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil SpecUlises$0.53$0.280.52x3h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalUlises$0.53$0.701.32x3h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffUlises$0.53$0.360.68x3h

Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec???$0.53$0.280.52x3h

Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare???$0.53$0.380.71x3h

Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Specпатрон$0.53$0.280.52x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.53	76.05%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.53	75.91%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.53	76.02%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.53	76.27%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.53	76.59%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.53	76.53%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.53	76.61%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.53	76.69%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.53	76.74%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.53	77.01%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.53	77.18%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.53	76.96%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.53	77.13%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.53	77.05%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.53	77.19%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.17%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	77.00%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.53	77.01%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.53	77.11%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.20%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	76.96%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.53	77.15%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.53	77.45%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.53	77.56%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.53	77.46%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.53	77.06%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.53	77.27%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.53	77.18%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.53	77.17%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.53	77.15%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%red 0.0%Mythical 9.4%Legendary 0.8%classified 0.4%#8847ff 19.5%Rare 17.6%violet 9.5%#4b69ff 9.4%blue 16.9%Mil Spec 8.5%Mil Spec Grade 8.0%best hit $30.58 (57.70x)