Solana
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
73.14%
EV $0.80 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.05%
3,344 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
61.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 73.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.25% – 86.85%, 3,344 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,347 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 77,269 | $70.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 62,585 | $63.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 2,806 | $19.91 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 70 | $5.68 | 10.2% | 55 | 47.8 | 1.15× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 59.7% | $1.07 | 80.1% | 2,326 | 1998.0 | 1.16× |
| Charm | Lil' Tuskcharm · #4b69ff | 38.8% | $0.18 | 8.6% | 704 | 1299.9 | 0.54× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 73.14% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 72.67% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 72.80% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 73.39% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 73.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 73.21% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 73.46% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 73.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 73.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 74.16% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 73.94% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 73.94% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 73.93% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 74.21% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 73.99% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 73.99% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 74.09% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 74.16% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 74.30% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 74.30% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 74.14% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 74.24% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 74.24% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 74.24% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 74.20% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 74.16% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 74.16% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 74.15% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 74.16% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.09 | 74.09% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%pink 0.0%Legendary 1.4%#8847ff 59.7%#4b69ff 38.8%best hit —