Космическая гонка 2.0
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.53
Advertised RTP
80.53%
EV $0.43 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.08%
11K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 81.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.51% – 93.64%, 11,045 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.53 | 80.53% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.53 | 80.24% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.53 | 80.28% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.53 | 80.54% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.53 | 80.95% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.53 | 80.91% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.53 | 81.01% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.53 | 81.17% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.53 | 81.16% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.53 | 81.55% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.53 | 81.60% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.53 | 81.54% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.53 | 81.48% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.53 | 81.44% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.53 | 81.64% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.57% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.42% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.47% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.57% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.60% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 81.49% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.53 | 81.59% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.53 | 82.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.53 | 82.08% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.53 | 81.89% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.53 | 81.54% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.53 | 81.70% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.53 | 81.67% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.53 | 81.70% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.53 | 81.64% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%restricted 1.2%uncommon 0.0%pink 0.1%#8847ff 0.4%Mythical 12.4%#4b69ff 27.8%Restricted 5.7%blue 22.5%milspec 13.4%violet 8.0%mil spec 8.4%best hit —