Spectrum Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.93

Advertised RTP

76.69%

EV $0.71 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.78%

740 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

31 openings · below min

7 days

92.41%±13.89579 openings

30 days

90.78%±12.31740 openings

since tracking started

90.78%±12.31740 openings

13.0%73.8%134.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.47% – 103.08%, 740 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	31	73.86%±60.2	—	odds
7d	579	92.41%±13.9	+2.1σ	odds
30d	740	90.78%±12.3	+2.1σ	odds
All	740	90.78%±12.3	+2.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 741 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,975	$116	1.6%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,960	$98.94	1.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,301	$12.40	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,203	$12.21	0.5%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,899	$11.63	0.6%	1	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$1.62	10.4%	45	34.0	1.32×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.48	11.1%	34	39.8	0.85×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.23	12.3%	32	52.9	0.61×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 14	$1.23	12.3%	77	52.7	1.46×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.17	12.4%	78	56.2	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	10.8%	$0.48	7.3%	26	80.2	0.32×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	10.2%	$0.41	5.9%	61	75.3	0.81×
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 10	$0.39	5.4%	41	73.3	0.56×
Sawed-Off \| Zander (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10	$0.36	4.9%	58	70.8	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.36	4.7%	21	69.8	0.30×
MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.35	4.6%	3	69.1	0.04×
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.32	4.0%	40	66.0	0.61×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluedoctorbayard$0.93$0.410.44x2h

Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff,,N!ppL3"$0.93$0.350.38x3h

SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecMaMaca$0.93$0.320.35x6h

Five-SeveN | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMaMaca$0.93$0.350.38x6h

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMaMaca$0.93$1.281.38x6h

MP7 | Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMaMaca$0.93$0.350.37x6h

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMaMaca$0.93$1.491.60x6h

Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarek1ngpen$0.93$0.480.52x14h

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPiratka$0.93$1.231.32x16h

Five-SeveN | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareF0RTlNlTE G4M3R420$0.93$0.350.38x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.93	76.69%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.93	76.66%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.93	76.54%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.93	76.87%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.93	77.18%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.93	77.16%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.93	77.18%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.93	77.24%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.93	77.36%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.93	77.68%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.93	77.67%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.93	77.67%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.93	77.70%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.93	77.75%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.93	77.72%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.76%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.80%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.93	77.77%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.93	77.74%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.67%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.71%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.93	77.76%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.93	78.10%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.93	78.03%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.93	78.07%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.93	77.77%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.93	77.91%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.93	77.78%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.93	77.87%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.93	77.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 7.1%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.0%#8847ff 12.2%restricted 5.4%violet 7.1%Rare 30.3%blue 10.2%#4b69ff 9.4%mil spec 9.3%milspec 8.9%best hit —