Spectrum 2

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.53

Advertised RTP

76.15%

EV $0.40 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.09%

1,786 openings, odds method

Variance

9.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.96%±48.20156 openings

7 days

85.29%±15.651,553 openings

30 days

84.09%±14.611,786 openings

since tracking started

84.09%±14.611,786 openings

31.0%80.0%129.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	156	79.96%±48.2	+0.2σ	odds
7d	1,553	85.29%±15.7	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,786	84.09%±14.6	+0.9σ	odds
All	1,786	84.09%±14.6	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,786 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,997	$101	2.5%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,997	$94.63	2.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,990	$67.57	1.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 9,977	$50.34	1.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 8,269	$11.22	0.3%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,779	$10.11	0.3%	1	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,593	$9.77	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 55	$1.13	5.1%	73	32.4	2.26×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 53	$1.11	5.2%	67	33.9	1.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$1.07	5.6%	75	37.5	2.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.01	6.2%	49	44.2	1.11×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.00	6.2%	99	44.4	2.23×
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	27.9%	$0.31	21.1%	53	497.8	0.11×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	28.8%	$0.30	21.1%	427	513.8	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	32.5%	$0.26	20.8%	171	580.5	0.29×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffxco5$0.53$0.260.49x3h

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluexco5$0.53$0.300.56x3h

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffxco5$0.53$0.260.49x3h

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil speccall me PAPI$0.53$0.300.56x5h

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specturb0w-$0.53$0.300.56x7h

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffturb0w-$0.53$0.260.48x7h

G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blueturb0w-$0.53$0.300.57x7h

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specturb0w-$0.53$0.300.56x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.15%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.53	76.15%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.53	75.97%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.53	75.94%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.53	76.21%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.53	76.53%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.53	76.46%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.53	76.58%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.53	76.58%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.53	76.68%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.53	77.14%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.53	77.11%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.53	77.11%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.53	77.06%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.53	77.09%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.53	77.08%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.08%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	77.08%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.53	77.07%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.53	77.13%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.16%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	77.09%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.53	77.12%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.53	77.56%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.53	77.55%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.53	77.43%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.53	77.10%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.53	77.27%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.53	77.21%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.53	77.19%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.53	77.18%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.0%Mythical 3.7%#8847ff 2.1%violet 5.0%blue 56.6%#4b69ff 32.5%best hit —