Spicy mining

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.10

Advertised RTP

61.23%

EV $0.06 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

359.85%

769 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82 openings · below min

7 days

367.92%±11.25648 openings

30 days

359.85%±10.27769 openings

since tracking started

359.85%±10.27769 openings

60.5%247.0%433.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 62.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (349.58% – 370.12%, 769 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	82	400.21%±32.7	—	odds
7d	648	367.92%±11.3	+53.3σ	odds
30d	769	359.85%±10.3	+56.8σ	odds
All	769	359.85%±10.3	+56.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 771 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,939	$4.15	0.9%	3	0.1	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,753	$3.72	1.1%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,866	$2.93	1.7%	3	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	15.1%	$0.35	85.8%	740	116.4	6.36×
Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	22.8%	$0.01	4.1%	0	175.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	19.4%	<$0.01	2.8%	0	149.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	11.7%	<$0.01	1.1%	0	90.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	10.3%	<$0.01	0.8%	0	79.6	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	10.3%	<$0.01	0.8%	0	79.6	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	10.3%	<$0.01	0.8%	0	79.6	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetA para né Pedrinho$0.10$0.353.47x43m

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetnazartyson | Bloodycase.com$0.10$0.353.47x1h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetInsite644$0.10$0.353.47x1h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetobsession$0.10$0.353.48x2h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetgladiolus$0.10$0.353.48x2h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRespect´$0.10$0.353.48x3h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSifma$0.10$0.353.48x4h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetКалина Спорт$0.10$0.353.47x5h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetI̶'m̶ h̶a̶p̶p̶y̶ (lie)$0.10$0.353.48x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 61.23%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.10	61.23%	10
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.10	61.18%	10
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.10	61.17%	10
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.10	61.55%	10
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.10	61.75%	10
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.10	61.69%	10
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.10	61.59%	10
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.10	61.77%	10
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.10	61.69%	10
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.10	62.02%	10
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.10	62.02%	10
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.10	62.00%	10
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.10	62.06%	10
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.10	62.12%	10
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.10	62.19%	10
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.10	62.20%	10
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.10	62.09%	10
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.10	62.11%	10
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.10	62.03%	10
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.10	62.12%	10
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.10	62.08%	10
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.10	62.22%	10
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.10	62.39%	10
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.10	62.37%	10
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.10	62.47%	10
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.10	62.30%	10
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.10	62.24%	10
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.10	62.22%	10
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.10	62.07%	10
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.10	62.09%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%violet 15.1%#777777 22.8%consumer 29.7%gray 11.7%#b0c3d9 10.3%Common 10.3%best hit —