Человек-паук: Новый день

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.23

Advertised RTP

80.86%

EV $0.19 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.03%

1,186 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89 openings · below min

7 days

88.22%±5.461,005 openings

30 days

89.03%±5.021,186 openings

since tracking started

89.03%±5.021,186 openings

75.5%94.8%114.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 81.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.01% – 94.04%, 1,186 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	89	94.71%±18.8	—	odds
7d	1,005	88.22%±5.46	+2.3σ	odds
30d	1,186	89.03%±5.02	+2.8σ	odds
All	1,186	89.03%±5.02	+2.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,186 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 9,737	$8.76	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,603	$7.60	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,997	$5.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,811	$5.13	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,964	$3.46	0.3%	1	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial	1 in 6,870	$3.41	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,446	$2.44	0.3%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,050	$2.31	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,452	$1.80	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Charm \| Magmatudecharm · violet	1 in 2,324	$1.76	0.4%	0	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,189	$1.71	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,743	$1.56	0.5%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 610	$1.04	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 578	$1.02	0.9%	2	2.1	0.97×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 342	$0.84	1.3%	3	3.5	0.86×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 216	$0.72	1.8%	7	5.5	1.28×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 190	$0.68	1.9%	5	6.3	0.80×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$0.51	3.2%	13	13.7	0.95×
Charm \| Big Braincharm · #8847ff	1 in 82	$0.50	3.3%	21	14.4	1.45×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 60	$0.44	4.0%	32	19.8	1.62×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.35	5.7%	50	36.1	1.38×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.30	6.7%	43	49.0	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.25	8.3%	119	73.9	1.61×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	10.1%	$0.18	10.0%	111	119.3	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	10.5%	$0.18	10.1%	84	125.0	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	14.1%	$0.13	10.1%	136	167.0	0.81×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	14.2%	$0.13	10.0%	138	168.9	0.82×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	15.6%	$0.11	9.3%	85	184.5	0.46×
Charm \| Lil' Vinocharm · #4b69ff	16.1%	$0.09	8.1%	153	191.4	0.80×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · RarexCry$0.23$0.130.58x2m

Charm | Lil' Vinocharm · #4b69ff神 xyй cs2case.gg$0.23$0.090.41x26m

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted神 xyй cs2case.gg$0.23$0.251.08x26m

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet神 xyй cs2case.gg$0.23$0.451.95x26m

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet神 xyй cs2case.gg$0.23$0.341.50x27m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonKatakia$0.23$0.180.77x41m

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecKatakia$0.23$0.110.48x41m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonKatakia$0.23$0.180.77x41m

Charm | Lil' Vinocharm · #4b69ffKatakia$0.23$0.090.41x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.23	80.86%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.23	80.67%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.23	80.63%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.23	80.98%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.23	81.37%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.23	81.34%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.23	81.28%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.23	81.38%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.23	81.39%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.23	82.01%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.23	81.98%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.23	81.97%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.23	81.92%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.23	81.94%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.23	81.94%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.23	81.95%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.23	81.90%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.23	81.88%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.23	81.85%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.23	81.94%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.23	81.77%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.23	81.91%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.23	82.38%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.23	82.34%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.23	82.30%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.23	81.90%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.23	82.03%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.23	82.05%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.23	82.03%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.23	81.98%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedviolet 4.9%pink 0.0%mil spec 0.5%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Industrial 0.0%#8847ff 1.2%restricted 7.6%Mythical 0.6%#4b69ff 30.6%common 10.5%Rare 14.1%blue 14.2%milspec 15.6%best hit —