The Sport & Field

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

76.15%

EV $2.58 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.14%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

-0.5%85.8%172.0%

Small sample. 19 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	42.65%±128.8	—	odds
7d	17	108.18%±59.3	—	odds
30d	19	103.14%±56.4	—	odds
All	19	103.14%±56.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 21,874	$204	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 26	$19.06	28.7%	2	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	27.5%	$2.52	26.8%	0	5.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	25.6%	$2.23	22.1%	5	4.9	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	24.8%	$2.13	20.5%	2	4.7	0.42×
P250 \| Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.31	0.5%	2	0.8	—
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.27	0.4%	1	0.7	—
Nova \| Yorkshire (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.23	0.3%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 32	$0.22	0.3%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 69	$0.10	0.1%	0	0.3	—
MP5-SD \| Savannah Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 145	$0.05	0.0%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Cold Cell (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 169	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 182	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 269	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Half Sleeve (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 374	$0.02	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violetKosmik$3.39$2.130.63x5h

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommong0_0se$3.39$1.990.59x10h

SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rareg0_0se$3.39$0.220.06x10h

MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violetBr1ght$3.39$2.110.62x1d

MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet..saizu?$3.39$2.180.64x1d

MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet[GRS] Capo$3.39$2.180.64x2d

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffbereza$3.39$0.280.08x3d

P250 | Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecnonyamis$3.39$0.290.09x3d

SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarecamry3.5t$3.39$0.210.06x4d

Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rareMichkus$3.39$19.515.76x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.15%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$3.39	76.15%	15
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	75.98%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.81%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.77%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.09%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.45%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.41%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.42%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.49%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.56%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	77.01%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.93%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.88%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.01%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.35%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.37%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.31%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.08%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.10%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%rare 3.9%violet 53.1%uncommon 24.8%milspec 4.2%#4b69ff 7.0%Rare 3.1%Uncommon 1.5%industrial 2.5%best hit —