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A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
80.00%
EV $0.54 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.46%
4,172 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 80.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.40% – 89.52%, 4,172 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,185 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 80.00% | 22 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 79.95% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 79.84% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 80.08% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 80.54% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 80.54% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 80.38% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 80.48% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 80.57% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 80.94% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 81.07% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 80.98% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 80.96% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 80.98% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 81.06% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 81.16% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 81.03% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 80.97% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 80.96% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 81.02% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 80.95% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 81.03% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 81.44% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 81.48% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 81.40% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 81.03% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 81.16% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 81.03% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 80.97% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 80.99% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.0%Mythical 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%#8847ff 16.5%remarkable 0.1%Legendary 9.0%extraordinary 0.4%violet 0.6%#d32ce6 12.3%high 19.9%blue 19.5%common 11.0%#4b69ff 10.5%best hit —