Summer mining
A case on csgo.net (Mining), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.26
Advertised RTP
63.70%
EV $0.17 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6892.40%
831 openings, odds method
Variance
57.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 129
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 64.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6837.95% – 6946.85%, 831 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 831 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 8,314 | $92.20 | 6.7% | 11 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 3,794 | $45.97 | 7.3% | 23 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 3,779 | $45.87 | 7.3% | 22 | 0.2 | — |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,834 | $32.92 | 10.8% | 59 | 0.5 | — |
| Charm | Lil' Fernocharm · #eb4b4b | 1 in 152 | $13.46 | 53.4% | 711 | 5.5 | 130.13× |
| UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 99.2% | $0.02 | 14.4% | 0 | 824.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.70%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.26 | 63.70% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.26 | 64.10% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.26 | 64.15% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.26 | 64.14% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.26 | 64.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.26 | 64.40% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.26 | 64.28% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.26 | 64.96% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.26 | 64.95% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.26 | 64.95% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.26 | 64.71% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.26 | 64.89% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.26 | 64.63% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.93% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.91% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.64% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.69% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.97% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.26 | 64.88% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.26 | 64.98% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.26 | 65.25% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.26 | 65.16% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.26 | 64.91% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.26 | 64.66% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.26 | 64.73% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.26 | 64.71% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.26 | 64.97% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.26 | 64.95% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $0.26 | 65.01% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $0.26 | 65.09% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.7%#777777 99.2%best hit $101 (388.7x)