Tec-9

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.09

Advertised RTP

63.43%

EV $0.69 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.49%

242 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

57 openings · below min

7 days

68.70%±9.21191 openings

30 days

75.49%±8.15242 openings

since tracking started

75.49%±8.15242 openings

56.0%72.8%89.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 64.14% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.34% – 83.65%, 242 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	57	72.71%±16.0	—	odds
7d	191	68.70%±9.21	+1.0σ	odds
30d	242	75.49%±8.15	+2.7σ	odds
All	242	75.49%±8.15	+2.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 242 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 187,766	$78.07	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 157,610	$48.66	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 47,992	$21.37	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 24,465	$16.26	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23,172	$15.93	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11,940	$12.50	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Hades (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 9,985	$11.73	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 4,210	$8.69	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Ossified (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,865	$8.44	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,336	$7.10	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 719	$4.73	1.0%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 480	$4.11	1.2%	0	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 340	$3.64	1.5%	0	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 312	$3.54	1.6%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 292	$3.45	1.7%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 274	$3.37	1.8%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 219	$3.11	2.0%	1	1.1	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$2.11	3.9%	2	3.1	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$1.48	6.3%	9	7.1	1.27×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$1.26	7.4%	13	9.9	1.32×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.22	7.6%	24	10.5	2.29×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.15	8.0%	19	11.7	1.62×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$1.10	8.3%	10	12.7	0.79×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.8%	$0.49	7.7%	40	26.1	1.53×
Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	10.9%	$0.46	7.1%	0	26.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	10.9%	$0.45	7.0%	25	26.3	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.8%	$0.43	6.7%	7	26.2	0.27×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.8%	$0.41	6.3%	14	26.1	0.54×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	10.5%	$0.36	5.4%	13	25.4	0.51×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.5%	$0.36	5.4%	15	25.4	0.59×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkOgurchik$1.09$2.212.03x9h

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedOgurchik$1.09$1.161.06x9h

Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareMamontino$1.09$0.450.41x10h

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedev1lfreezy$1.09$1.221.12x12h

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested)weapon · blueev1lfreezy$1.09$1.050.96x12h

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedev1lfreezy$1.09$0.540.50x12h

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythicalev1lfreezy$1.09$2.282.09x12h

Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rareev1lfreezy$1.09$0.390.36x12h

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedev1lfreezy$1.09$0.540.50x12h

Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetev1lfreezy$1.09$0.430.40x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.09	63.43%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.09	63.26%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.09	63.26%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.09	63.50%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.09	63.81%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.09	63.85%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.09	63.85%	32
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.09	63.86%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.09	63.94%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.09	64.27%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.09	64.22%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.09	64.21%	31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.09	64.25%	31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.09	64.24%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.09	64.28%	31
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	64.26%	31
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	64.21%	31
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.09	64.29%	31
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.09	64.27%	31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	64.21%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	64.24%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.09	64.31%	31
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.09	64.60%	31
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.09	64.62%	31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.09	64.51%	31
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.09	64.30%	31
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.09	64.35%	31
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.09	64.41%	31
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.09	64.37%	31
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.09	64.29%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMil Spec Grade 0.0%#8847ff 10.5%Mil Spec 0.0%mil spec 22.3%classified 0.0%industrial 0.3%Uncommon 0.0%#4b69ff 0.5%restricted 20.0%Consumer Grade 11.0%consumer 0.2%pink 1.3%milspec 13.8%Mythical 4.1%blue 5.2%Rare 10.9%best hit —