Tether

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$449.00

Advertised RTP

76.80%

EV $344.84 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.10%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

-0.5%54.5%109.5%

Small sample. 19 openings and 7.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	42.48%±49.9	—	odds
7d	17	87.55%±21.2	—	odds
30d	19	88.10%±20.1	—	odds
All	19	88.10%±20.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,246	$3,271	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 759	$1,993	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 121	$1,050	2.5%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$1,016	2.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 87	$931	3.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$865	3.5%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$667	5.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 27	$584	6.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$567	6.6%	1	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$533	7.1%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$424	9.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.3%	$330	10.8%	1	2.1	0.47×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.4%	$329	10.9%	2	2.2	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.1%	$315	11.1%	3	2.3	1.30×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	18.8%	$191	10.4%	4	3.6	1.12×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	19.5%	$169	9.6%	1	3.7	0.27×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700VLIQ$449$1,0722.39x2d

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedq$449$8681.93x1d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted4u_4u_ga_ga$449$5761.28x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertNikrul$449$5591.25x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarymax_lemos$449$5431.21x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covertVLIQ$449$5221.16x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redMPC TURN OFF CAPS$449$1910.42x10h

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redVLIQ$449$1910.42x11h

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedq$449$8681.93x1d

AK-47 | Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedq$449$3410.76x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covertVLIQ$449$5221.16x2d

★ Flip Knife | Loreknife · sunnyVLIQ$449$1590.35x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700VLIQ$449$1,0722.39x2d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted4u_4u_ga_ga$449$5761.28x2d

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted4u_4u_ga_ga$449$3140.70x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.80%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$449	76.80%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$449	76.63%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$449	76.61%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$449	76.90%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$449	77.24%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$449	77.25%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$449	77.23%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$449	77.30%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$449	77.36%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$449	77.80%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$449	77.77%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$449	77.76%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$449	77.79%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$449	77.79%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$449	77.79%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$449	77.80%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$449	77.77%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$449	77.78%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$449	77.79%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$449	77.79%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$449	77.72%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$449	77.84%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$449	78.20%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$449	78.21%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$449	78.11%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$449	77.80%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$449	77.89%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$449	77.88%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$449	77.89%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$449	77.86%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 12.8%extraordinary 5.0%#ffd700 0.8%covert 7.6%restricted 35.4%red 18.8%sunny 19.5%best hit $1,072 (2.39x)