2021 Mirage

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.09

Advertised RTP

75.85%

EV $3.10 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.03%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

38.5%116.5%194.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	11	118.60%±75.0	—	odds
30d	14	106.03%±66.6	—	odds
All	14	106.03%±66.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 190,718	$946	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 18,205	$160	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$22.18	11.3%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$17.36	16.7%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$16.86	17.4%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	19.7%	$2.43	15.4%	6	2.8	2.18×
SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	18.7%	$2.21	13.3%	2	2.6	0.77×
MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	18.1%	$2.10	12.2%	2	2.5	0.79×
M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	17.8%	$2.05	11.7%	2	2.5	0.80×
FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.30	0.3%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Verdant Growth (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.28	0.3%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 34	$0.28	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 36	$0.27	0.2%	0	0.4	—
PP-Bizon \| Anolis (Well-Worn)weapon	1 in 65	$0.15	0.1%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 70	$0.14	0.1%	0	0.2	—
MAG-7 \| Navy Sheen (Field-Tested)weapon	1 in 89	$0.11	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Drought (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 90	$0.11	0.0%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Prey (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 100	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)weapon · blueSCRAGA$4.09$2.080.51x1d

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blueBr1ght$4.09$2.480.61x1d

SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · blueBr1ght$4.09$2.180.53x1d

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · bluekingsli$4.09$2.480.61x1d

MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rares1mpala$4.09$2.090.51x1d

MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKhanzor$4.09$2.080.51x2d

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · bluenonyamis$4.09$2.500.61x4d

M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)weapon · blueSniG_DP$4.09$2.140.52x5d

XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)weapon · Restrictedcamry3.5t$4.09$16.454.02x5d

XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedDonFeromon$4.09$16.364.00x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$4.09	75.85%	18
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.09	75.62%	18
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.09	75.45%	18
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.09	75.46%	18
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.09	75.73%	18
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.09	76.09%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.09	76.09%	18
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.09	76.05%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.09	76.14%	18
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.09	76.17%	18
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	18
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.09	76.58%	18
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.09	76.56%	18
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.09	76.63%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.09	76.62%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.09	76.62%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.59%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.58%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.09	76.63%	18
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.09	76.63%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.58%	18
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.55%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.09	76.98%	18
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.09	76.97%	18
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.09	76.90%	18
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.09	76.59%	18
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.09	76.73%	18
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.09	76.71%	18
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.09	76.73%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 1.6%violet 3.0%Mythical 3.2%blue 56.1%Rare 18.1%industrial 6.1%#87c7ff 2.9%Uncommon 2.8%other 2.7%Common 2.5%gray 1.0%best hit —