2021 Train

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$5.39

Advertised RTP

76.56%

EV $4.13 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.68%

31 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

31 openings · below min

since tracking started

31 openings · below min

15.0%57.3%99.5%

Small sample. 31 openings and 9.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	57.33%±41.7	—	odds
7d	31	70.68%±26.6	—	odds
30d	31	70.68%±26.6	—	odds
All	31	70.68%±26.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 19,560	$136	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,233	$72.12	0.5%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 360	$33.79	2.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 209	$27.82	3.2%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 146	$24.40	4.1%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$8.18	14.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$7.65	14.4%	3	2.4	1.25×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 10	$5.85	14.1%	4	3.1	1.30×
Nova \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	10.6%	$5.23	13.4%	3	3.3	0.92×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	11.2%	$4.16	11.3%	4	3.5	1.16×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$2.58	6.2%	4	3.1	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$2.00	4.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$1.66	3.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$1.54	2.6%	2	2.1	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$1.48	2.4%	2	2.1	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$1.39	2.1%	3	2.0	1.53×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 16	$1.37	2.1%	2	2.0	1.03×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecg0_0se$5.39$1.480.27x5h

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restrictedg0_0se$5.39$4.160.77x5h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueg0_0se$5.39$1.540.29x5h

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restrictedg0_0se$5.39$4.160.77x5h

Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blueg0_0se$5.39$1.390.26x5h

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specg0_0se$5.39$2.580.48x5h

AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetg0_0se$5.39$5.851.09x5h

Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blueg0_0se$5.39$1.390.26x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.56%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$5.39	76.56%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$5.39	76.41%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$5.39	76.38%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$5.39	76.68%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$5.39	77.01%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$5.39	77.04%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$5.39	77.02%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$5.39	77.06%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$5.39	77.13%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.39	77.61%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.39	77.55%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$5.39	77.56%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.51%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$5.39	77.56%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.49%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.39	77.64%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$5.39	77.99%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$5.39	77.97%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$5.39	77.90%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$5.39	77.59%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$5.39	77.66%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.39	77.65%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.39	77.68%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$5.39	77.62%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 1.0%#d32ee6 0.5%restricted 14.9%violet 9.9%Restricted 21.7%mil spec 9.9%blue 21.7%Rare 7.4%milspec 6.7%Mil Spec Grade 6.3%best hit —