The Achroma Collection
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.93
Advertised RTP
78.95%
EV $0.73 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.43%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 19.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.93 | 78.95% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.61% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.93 | 79.12% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.93 | 79.35% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.38% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.31% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.35% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.36% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.93 | 79.86% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.93 | 79.89% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.85% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 80.13% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.88% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.93 | 80.02% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.79% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.98% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.68% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.84% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.93 | 80.34% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.93 | 80.21% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.15% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.01% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.05% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.93 | 80.13% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.93 | 80.06% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 0.5%#8847ff 53.8%milspec 18.9%#4b69ff 17.4%Uncommon 2.3%industrial 3.0%#5e98d9 0.8%Common 0.9%#b0c3d9 1.6%consumer 0.8%best hit —