Ancient

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

75.98%

EV $2.58 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.74%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

-0.5%135.3%271.0%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	91.74%±178.8	—	odds
7d	1	91.74%±178.8	—	odds
30d	1	91.74%±178.8	—	odds
All	1	91.74%±178.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 197,229	$716	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 64,611	$135	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,344	$32.35	0.9%	0	0.0	—
XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 581	$24.25	1.6%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 483	$22.76	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$8.65	9.3%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$8.24	9.9%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 19	$6.40	13.2%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.4%	$3.11	16.1%	1	0.1	—
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	14.7%	$2.22	12.7%	0	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	14.7%	$2.11	12.0%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Tall Grass (Field-Tested)weapon · #d2d2d2	14.4%	$1.86	10.4%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	14.2%	$1.77	9.8%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 21	$0.41	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 31	$0.28	0.4%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 31	$0.28	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 32	$0.26	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 35	$0.24	0.3%	0	0.0	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffg0_0se$3.39$3.110.92x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.98%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	75.98%	18
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.80%	18
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.79%	18
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.13%	18
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.40%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.39%	18
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.40%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.44%	18
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.53%	18
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	18
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	18
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	18
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	18
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	18
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.87%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.39%	18
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.35%	18
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.27%	18
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	18
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	18
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.09%	18
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.05%	18
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.02%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 0.1%Restricted 0.4%Rare 2.8%#4b69ff 21.8%Industrial Grade 14.7%blueLight 14.7%#d2d2d2 14.4%#87c7ff 14.2%Consumer Grade 7.9%gray 6.1%grey 3.1%best hit —