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The Arabesque Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$2.09
Advertised RTP
73.79%
EV $1.54 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.56%
119 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
49.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
20 openings · below min
7 days
92.05%±17.55106 openings
30 days
89.56%±16.55119 openings
since tracking started
89.56%±16.55119 openings
50.0%91.8%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2091.77%±41.1—odds
7d10692.05%±17.5+2.0σodds
30d11989.56%±16.6+1.8σodds
All11989.56%±16.6+1.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 8,863$85.350.6%00.0—
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 8,415$75.080.6%00.0—
M4A4 | Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 373$14.352.5%00.3—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 266$12.733.1%10.5—
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted15.1%$2.7226.7%818.30.44×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn)weapon · violet16.3%$2.5827.2%1719.70.86×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet18.3%$2.3527.9%022.20.00×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec14.0%$0.403.6%916.90.53×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec13.2%$0.373.2%916.00.56×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec12.8%$0.363.0%915.50.58×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 10$0.261.6%211.60.17×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecMashono4ka♿$2.09$0.370.18x
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$2.09$2.421.16x
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedTrackL1ght$2.09$2.421.16x
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn)weapon · blueTrackL1ght$2.09$0.300.15x
Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$0.360.17x
Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$0.360.17x
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$2.971.42x
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$3.271.56x
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$3.271.56x
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecMano Sem Dente™ _CSGOSKINS$2.09$0.390.19x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.79%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$2.0973.79%11
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$2.0973.60%11
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$2.0973.58%11
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$2.0973.84%11
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$2.0974.20%11
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$2.0974.18%11
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$2.0974.16%11
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$2.0974.21%11
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$2.0974.26%11
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$2.0974.75%11
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$2.0974.74%11
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$2.0974.69%11
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$2.0974.74%11
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$2.0974.78%11
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$2.0974.76%11
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$2.0974.64%11
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$2.0974.69%11
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$2.0974.69%11
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$2.0974.75%11
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$2.0974.67%11
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$2.0974.63%11
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$2.0974.77%11
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$2.0975.09%11
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$2.0975.14%11
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$2.0974.95%11
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$2.0974.74%11
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$2.0974.79%11
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$2.0974.77%11
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.0974.77%11
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$2.0974.83%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%pink 0.6%restricted 15.1%violet 34.6%milspec 40.0%blue 9.6%best hit —